Closing spread
DEN -5.5
Total
40
Model margin
+5.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.030EPA / play-0.035
- 38.9%Success rate40.6%
- +0.047EPA / dropback+0.016
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.111
- 7.9%Explosive rate7.5%
- 34.6%Third-down rate36.1%
- 40.9%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
- 1.28Points / drive1.38
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.034EPA / play allowed-0.063
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–6 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. DEN are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rick Mirer | 17/28 | 242 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Martin | 31 | 95 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Keyshawn Johnson | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Rick Mirer | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyshawn Johnson | 8 | 10 | 98 | 1 |
| Dedric Ward | 4 | 6 | 84 | 1 |
| Curtis Martin | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Bernie Parmalee | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Quinn Early | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 15/31 | 212 | 0 | 3 |
| Bubby Brister | 3/5 | 22 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Loville | 16 | 57 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Terrell Davis | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Bubby Brister | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Brian Griese | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 3 | 8 | 90 | 0 |
| Shannon Sharpe | 5 | 9 | 86 | 0 |
| Ed McCaffrey | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Derek Loville | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Byron Chamberlain | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 3 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Andre Cooper | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.6%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.34
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.25
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.47