1999 · Week 4

Final

Jets

New York

QB Rick Mirer

21·13

Broncos

Denver

QB Brian Griese

Mile High Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DEN -5.5

Total

40

Model margin

+5.5est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.030EPA / play-0.035
  • 38.9%Success rate40.6%
  • +0.047EPA / dropback+0.016
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.111
  • 7.9%Explosive rate7.5%
  • 34.6%Third-down rate36.1%
  • 40.9%Red-zone TD rate48.1%
  • 1.28Points / drive1.38
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.034EPA / play allowed-0.063

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 10–6 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. DEN are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6DEN @ NYJ13–11DEN
2024 · W4DEN @ NYJ10–9DEN
2023 · W5NYJ @ DEN31–21NYJ
2022 · W7NYJ @ DEN16–9NYJ
2021 · W3NYJ @ DEN0–26DEN
2020 · W4DEN @ NYJ37–28DEN
2018 · W5DEN @ NYJ16–34NYJ
2017 · W14NYJ @ DEN0–23DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–DEN
DENQ1 15:00677Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 11:24376Touchdown7–3
DENQ1 9:50331Touchdown7–10
NYJQ1 8:12753Turnover7–10
DENQ1 4:41612Turnover7–10
NYJQ1 1:523-7Missed field goal7–10
DENQ1 0:071261Turnover7–10
NYJQ2 10:26728Punt7–10
DENQ2 7:01518Punt7–10
NYJQ2 4:25511Punt7–10
DENQ2 1:53828Field goal7–13
NYJQ2 0:18223End of half7–13
NYJQ3 15:00936Punt7–13
DENQ3 9:271034Punt7–13
NYJQ3 5:211151Turnover on downs7–13
DENQ3 0:04531Punt7–13
NYJQ4 13:17933Touchdown14–13
DENQ4 10:521-16Turnover14–13
NYJQ4 10:3530Turnover14–13
DENQ4 9:2622Turnover14–13
NYJQ4 8:41530Touchdown21–13
DENQ4 5:5749Turnover on downs21–13
NYJQ4 4:4931Punt21–13
DENQ4 3:59217Turnover21–13
NYJQ4 3:1231Punt21–13
DENQ4 1:49422Turnover21–13
NYJQ4 0:5200End of half21–13

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rick Mirer17/2824222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Martin31953.11
Bernie Parmalee11818.00
Keyshawn Johnson1-1-1.00
Rick Mirer2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keyshawn Johnson810981
Dedric Ward46841
Curtis Martin34280
Bernie Parmalee11230
Quinn Early0100
Eric Green0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brian Griese15/3121203
Bubby Brister3/52202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derek Loville16573.60
Terrell Davis8182.31
Bubby Brister11717.00
Brian Griese4164.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rod Smith38900
Shannon Sharpe59860
Ed McCaffrey35170
Derek Loville34150
Byron Chamberlain11130
Howard Griffith33130
Andre Cooper0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

3.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.6%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.34
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.25
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.47