2020 · Week 4

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Brett Rypien

37·28

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 64°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

NYJ -1

Total

41

Model margin

-2.0est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapJets
  • -0.071EPA / play-0.116
  • 40.3%Success rate40.9%
  • -0.051EPA / dropback-0.098
  • -0.103EPA / rush-0.146
  • 9.1%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -5.11CPOE-2.07
  • 39.5%Third-down rate34.4%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.24
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 10–6 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. NYJ are 7-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6DEN @ NYJ13–11DEN
2024 · W4DEN @ NYJ10–9DEN
2023 · W5NYJ @ DEN31–21NYJ
2022 · W7NYJ @ DEN16–9NYJ
2021 · W3NYJ @ DEN0–26DEN
2018 · W5DEN @ NYJ16–34NYJ
2017 · W14NYJ @ DEN0–23DEN
2014 · W6DEN @ NYJ31–17DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00975Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 11:251152Field goal3–7
NYJQ1 4:45939Punt3–7
DENQ2 14:53455Touchdown10–7
NYJQ2 13:093-3Punt10–7
DENQ2 11:3420Turnover10–7
NYJQ2 11:05941Field goal10–7
NYJQ2 6:3210Field goal10–10
NYJQ2 6:2400Field goal10–10
DENQ2 6:211080Touchdown17–10
NYJQ2 1:371055Field goal17–13
DENQ2 0:1500End of half17–13
DENQ3 15:0032Punt17–13
NYJQ3 13:2358Field goal17–16
DENQ3 11:231375Touchdown24–16
NYJQ3 4:31818Punt24–16
DENQ3 0:5238Field goal27–16
NYJQ4 14:11639Field goal27–19
DENQ4 11:4430Opp touchdown27–25
DENQ4 10:45414Turnover27–25
NYJQ4 8:37525Field goal27–28
DENQ4 6:23935Field goal30–28
NYJQ4 3:08718Turnover on downs36–28
DENQ4 2:00143Touchdown37–28
NYJQ4 1:4846Turnover on downs37–28
DENQ4 1:0320End of half37–28

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Rypien19/3124223

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon231074.72
Jeff Driskel199.00
Royce Freeman362.00
Brett Rypien5-5-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tim Patrick671131
Jerry Jeudy24611
Noah Fant56350
Melvin Gordon23110
DaeSean Hamilton1390
Nick Vannett1270
Royce Freeman2260
Jake Butt0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold23/4223000
Joe Flacco2/21600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sam Darnold68414.01
Frank Gore13302.30
La'Mical Perine5153.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder7101040
Jeff Smith79810
Chris Hogan48230
Chris Herndon13110
Kalen Ballage23110
Ryan Griffin33100
Frank Gore1260
Braxton Berrios0300
Lawrence Cager0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.6%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.92
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.03