Closing spread
NYJ -1
Total
41
Model margin
-2.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.071EPA / play-0.116
- 40.3%Success rate40.9%
- -0.051EPA / dropback-0.098
- -0.103EPA / rush-0.146
- 9.1%Explosive rate7.4%
- -5.11CPOE-2.07
- 39.5%Third-down rate34.4%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate41.2%
- 1.59Points / drive1.24
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–6 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. NYJ are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Rypien | 19/31 | 242 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 23 | 107 | 4.7 | 2 |
| Jeff Driskel | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brett Rypien | 5 | -5 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Patrick | 6 | 7 | 113 | 1 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2 | 4 | 61 | 1 |
| Noah Fant | 5 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jake Butt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 23/42 | 230 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2/2 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 6 | 84 | 14.0 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 13 | 30 | 2.3 | 0 |
| La'Mical Perine | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 7 | 10 | 104 | 0 |
| Jeff Smith | 7 | 9 | 81 | 0 |
| Chris Hogan | 4 | 8 | 23 | 0 |
| Chris Herndon | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Lawrence Cager | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.6%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.82
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.92
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.03