2024 · Week 4

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Bo Nix

10·9

Jets

New York

QB Aaron Rodgers

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 67°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

NYJ -7.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

-0.9est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapJets
  • +0.011EPA / play-0.001
  • 42.8%Success rate43.0%
  • +0.062EPA / dropback+0.053
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.108
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +0.58CPOE-1.89
  • 40.4%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 65.1%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 2.16Points / drive1.85
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 10–6 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. NYJ are 7-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6DEN @ NYJ13–11DEN
2023 · W5NYJ @ DEN31–21NYJ
2022 · W7NYJ @ DEN16–9NYJ
2021 · W3NYJ @ DEN0–26DEN
2020 · W4DEN @ NYJ37–28DEN
2018 · W5DEN @ NYJ16–34NYJ
2017 · W14NYJ @ DEN0–23DEN
2014 · W6DEN @ NYJ31–17DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:003-1Turnover0–0
DENQ1 14:084-4Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:5031Punt0–0
DENQ1 10:573-1Punt0–0
NYJQ1 9:293-2Punt0–0
DENQ1 7:5237Punt0–0
NYJQ1 6:1438Punt0–0
DENQ1 3:5344Turnover0–0
NYJQ1 2:0779Field goal0–3
DENQ2 14:5132Punt0–3
NYJQ2 13:1557Punt0–3
DENQ2 10:15624Punt0–3
NYJQ2 7:35623Punt0–3
DENQ2 4:45514Punt0–3
NYJQ2 1:47856Field goal0–6
DENQ3 15:00521Punt0–6
NYJQ3 12:51840Punt0–6
DENQ3 8:351373Touchdown7–6
NYJQ3 3:081068Field goal7–9
DENQ4 13:34741Field goal10–9
NYJQ4 8:55724Punt10–9
DENQ4 4:0236Punt10–9
NYJQ4 2:3162Turnover on downs10–9
DENQ4 1:4633Missed field goal10–9
NYJQ4 1:27513Missed field goal10–9
DENQ4 0:4700End of half10–9

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bo Nix12/256010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams16774.80
Jaleel McLaughlin9465.10
Bo Nix530.60
Tyler Badie100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton39601
Javonte Williams2330
Josh Reynolds0200
Lil'Jordan Humphrey0100
Greg Dulcich0100
Nate Adkins1100
Jaleel McLaughlin1100
Troy Franklin24-20
Tyler Badie22-40

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers24/4222500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Braelon Allen8344.30
Aaron Rodgers5265.20
Breece Hall1040.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams45670
Allen Lazard58580
Garrett Wilson58410
Tyler Conklin48170
Breece Hall25140
Braelon Allen11120
Jeremy Ruckert22100
Xavier Gipson1460

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.5%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

1.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.7%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.84
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-0.89