Closing spread
NYJ -7.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
-0.9est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.001
- 42.8%Success rate43.0%
- +0.062EPA / dropback+0.053
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.108
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.8%
- +0.58CPOE-1.89
- 40.4%Third-down rate39.7%
- 65.1%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 2.16Points / drive1.85
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–6 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. NYJ are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 12/25 | 60 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 16 | 77 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 9 | 60 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Dulcich | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Adkins | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
| Tyler Badie | 2 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/42 | 225 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braelon Allen | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 10 | 4 | 0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 5 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 5 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 8 | 17 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 2 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Braelon Allen | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.7%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.84
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-0.89