Closing spread
NYJ -1
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play-0.119
- 38.5%Success rate38.4%
- -0.000EPA / dropback-0.110
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.134
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.3%
- +0.98CPOE-2.16
- 36.0%Third-down rate38.9%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.51Points / drive1.24
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–6 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. DEN are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 6/12 | 46 | 0 | 1 |
| Bryce Petty | 2/9 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Powell | 13 | 35 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Bryce Petty | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Elijah McGuire | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| ArDarius Stewart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 19/31 | 200 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 22 | 48 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 9 | 22 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Trevor Siemian | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 8 | 12 | 93 | 1 |
| Cody Latimer | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.71
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.45