2017 · Week 14

Final

Jets

New York

QB Josh McCown

0·23

Broncos

Denver

QB Trevor Siemian

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

NYJ -1

Total

40.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.073EPA / play-0.119
  • 38.5%Success rate38.4%
  • -0.000EPA / dropback-0.110
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.134
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +0.98CPOE-2.16
  • 36.0%Third-down rate38.9%
  • 57.7%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.24
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 10–6 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. DEN are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6DEN @ NYJ13–11DEN
2024 · W4DEN @ NYJ10–9DEN
2023 · W5NYJ @ DEN31–21NYJ
2022 · W7NYJ @ DEN16–9NYJ
2021 · W3NYJ @ DEN0–26DEN
2020 · W4DEN @ NYJ37–28DEN
2018 · W5DEN @ NYJ16–34NYJ
2014 · W6DEN @ NYJ31–17DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–DEN
DENQ1 15:001157Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 9:023-5Turnover0–3
DENQ1 7:28220Touchdown0–10
NYJQ1 7:163-9Punt0–10
DENQ1 5:451140Missed field goal0–10
NYJQ2 14:571146Turnover0–10
DENQ2 9:2831Punt0–10
NYJQ2 8:2939Punt0–10
DENQ2 6:301028Field goal0–13
NYJQ2 0:3200End of half0–13
NYJQ3 15:00511Punt0–13
DENQ3 12:491368Touchdown0–20
NYJQ3 6:3035Punt0–20
DENQ3 5:1435Punt0–20
NYJQ3 3:45926Turnover on downs0–20
DENQ3 1:17737Field goal0–23
NYJQ4 11:3334Punt0–23
DENQ4 10:1637Punt0–23
NYJQ4 8:3237Punt0–23
DENQ4 7:2134Punt0–23
NYJQ4 5:5136Punt0–23
DENQ4 4:3137Punt0–23
NYJQ4 2:0931Punt0–23
DENQ4 0:3200End of half0–23

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown6/124601
Bryce Petty2/91400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bilal Powell13352.70
Matt Forte6132.20
Josh McCown273.50
Bryce Petty177.00
Elijah McGuire1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen36270
Matt Forte23210
Jermaine Kearse1640
Austin Seferian-Jenkins1410
ArDarius Stewart0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Siemian19/3120010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson22482.20
Devontae Booker9222.40
Trevor Siemian3134.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas812931
Cody Latimer23370
C.J. Anderson22250
Emmanuel Sanders14160
Jamaal Charles33120
Devontae Booker22120
Jeff Heuerman1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.3%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.71
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.45