Closing spread
DEN -1
Total
42
Model margin
-1.0est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Jets
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play-0.130
- 43.4%Success rate37.1%
- -0.009EPA / dropback-0.087
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.196
- 9.9%Explosive rate8.2%
- -0.98CPOE-5.42
- 33.1%Third-down rate32.2%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate49.6%
- 1.60Points / drive1.47
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–6 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. NYJ are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 35/51 | 377 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 12 | 61 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 5 | 6 | 105 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 9 | 14 | 72 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Matt LaCosse | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Jeff Heuerman | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2 | 6 | 18 | 1 |
| Royce Freeman | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Brian Parker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 10/22 | 198 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 15 | 219 | 14.6 | 1 |
| Bilal Powell | 20 | 99 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Chosen | 3 | 5 | 123 | 2 |
| Terrelle Pryor | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Isaiah Crowell | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jordan Leggett | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.3%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.85
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.03