2018 · Week 5

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Case Keenum

16·34

Jets

New York

QB Sam Darnold

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 77°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DEN -1

Total

42

Model margin

-1.0est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapJets
  • -0.020EPA / play-0.130
  • 43.4%Success rate37.1%
  • -0.009EPA / dropback-0.087
  • -0.040EPA / rush-0.196
  • 9.9%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -0.98CPOE-5.42
  • 33.1%Third-down rate32.2%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate49.6%
  • 1.60Points / drive1.47
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 10–6 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. NYJ are 7-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6DEN @ NYJ13–11DEN
2024 · W4DEN @ NYJ10–9DEN
2023 · W5NYJ @ DEN31–21NYJ
2022 · W7NYJ @ DEN16–9NYJ
2021 · W3NYJ @ DEN0–26DEN
2020 · W4DEN @ NYJ37–28DEN
2017 · W14NYJ @ DEN0–23DEN
2014 · W6DEN @ NYJ31–17DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–NYJ
DENQ1 15:00744Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:2423Turnover0–0
DENQ1 10:34320Touchdown7–0
NYJQ1 9:191263Missed field goal7–0
DENQ1 3:08842Punt7–6
NYJQ2 13:59177Touchdown7–7
DENQ2 13:4747Punt7–7
NYJQ2 11:36377Touchdown7–14
DENQ2 10:463-8Punt7–14
NYJQ2 9:0633Punt7–14
DENQ2 8:021179Field goal10–14
NYJQ2 3:58970Touchdown10–21
DENQ2 1:1346Punt10–21
NYJQ2 0:1900End of half10–21
NYJQ3 15:00453Turnover10–21
DENQ3 13:27410Punt10–21
NYJQ3 11:261264Field goal10–24
DENQ3 4:52415Punt10–24
NYJQ3 2:3439Punt10–24
DENQ3 0:5830Punt10–24
NYJQ4 15:003-1Field goal10–27
DENQ4 12:591069Turnover on downs10–27
NYJQ4 9:05693Touchdown10–34
DENQ4 5:10775Touchdown16–34
NYJQ4 3:1832Punt16–34
DENQ4 2:14877Turnover16–34

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum35/5137721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Phillip Lindsay12615.10
Royce Freeman5316.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas561051
Emmanuel Sanders914720
Devontae Booker56590
DaeSean Hamilton33440
Phillip Lindsay34200
Matt LaCosse22190
Jeff Heuerman24180
Courtland Sutton26181
Royce Freeman34160
Tim Patrick1160
Brian Parker0100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold10/2219831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaiah Crowell1521914.61
Bilal Powell20995.00
Sam Darnold351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robbie Chosen351232
Terrelle Pryor11201
Eric Tomlinson23150
Jermaine Kearse14140
Isaiah Crowell11120
Jordan Leggett11100
Andre Roberts1240
Quincy Enunwa0500

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.3%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.85
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-1.03