2022 · Week 7

Final

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

16·9

Broncos

Denver

QB Brett Rypien

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

NYJ -2

Total

37

Model margin

+1.7est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.086EPA / play-0.077
  • 39.1%Success rate39.4%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback-0.050
  • -0.093EPA / rush-0.124
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -4.97CPOE-1.65
  • 34.3%Third-down rate29.1%
  • 39.8%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
  • 1.41Points / drive1.34
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 10–6 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. DEN are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6DEN @ NYJ13–11DEN
2024 · W4DEN @ NYJ10–9DEN
2023 · W5NYJ @ DEN31–21NYJ
2021 · W3NYJ @ DEN0–26DEN
2020 · W4DEN @ NYJ37–28DEN
2018 · W5DEN @ NYJ16–34NYJ
2017 · W14NYJ @ DEN0–23DEN
2014 · W6DEN @ NYJ31–17DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–DEN
NYJQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
DENQ1 14:37626Punt0–0
NYJQ1 11:36414Punt0–0
DENQ1 9:0430Punt0–0
NYJQ1 8:40373Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 7:341465Touchdown7–6
NYJQ1 1:333-11Punt7–6
DENQ2 14:53714Missed field goal7–6
NYJQ2 11:2034Punt7–6
DENQ2 9:421173Field goal7–9
NYJQ2 3:371173Field goal10–9
DENQ3 15:00623Punt10–9
NYJQ3 12:12527Punt10–9
DENQ3 10:146-1Punt10–9
NYJQ3 8:0633Punt10–9
DENQ3 6:29420Punt10–9
NYJQ3 4:31313Punt10–9
DENQ3 2:07214Turnover10–9
NYJQ3 1:24621Field goal13–9
DENQ4 12:4939Punt13–9
NYJQ4 10:471141Field goal16–9
DENQ4 4:351050Turnover on downs16–9
NYJQ4 1:5533Punt16–9
DENQ4 1:30731Turnover on downs16–9
NYJQ4 0:3000End of half16–9

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson16/2612100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall47218.01
Michael Carter13292.20
Braxton Berrios22713.50
Zach Wilson4246.00
Ty Johnson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Carter22450
Garrett Wilson44240
Tyler Conklin46220
Braxton Berrios34150
Ty Johnson1160
C.J. Uzomah1250
Denzel Mims1240
Corey Davis0100
Jeff Smith0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Rypien24/4622501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon11333.00
Latavius Murray8243.01
Mike Boone4235.80
KJ Hamler11414.00
Brett Rypien393.00
Montrell Washington122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jerry Jeudy711960
Greg Dulcich69510
Courtland Sutton39230
Eric Tomlinson22210
Melvin Gordon24170
Kendall Hinton11140
KJ Hamler1440
Eric Saubert0100
Latavius Murray23-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -24.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.42
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.69