Closing spread
NYJ -2
Total
37
Model margin
+1.7est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play-0.077
- 39.1%Success rate39.4%
- -0.081EPA / dropback-0.050
- -0.093EPA / rush-0.124
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.7%
- -4.97CPOE-1.65
- 34.3%Third-down rate29.1%
- 39.8%Red-zone TD rate61.5%
- 1.41Points / drive1.34
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–6 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. DEN are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 16/26 | 121 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 4 | 72 | 18.0 | 1 |
| Michael Carter | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 2 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Denzel Mims | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Rypien | 24/46 | 225 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Mike Boone | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| KJ Hamler | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Brett Rypien | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Montrell Washington | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerry Jeudy | 7 | 11 | 96 | 0 |
| Greg Dulcich | 6 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 3 | 9 | 23 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Kendall Hinton | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| KJ Hamler | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.49
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.42
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.69