Closing spread
DEN -7.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-5.3est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play-0.129
- 43.7%Success rate40.5%
- +0.097EPA / dropback-0.137
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.117
- 8.1%Explosive rate6.5%
- -1.38CPOE-4.21
- 42.4%Third-down rate35.0%
- 62.1%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 2.10Points / drive1.54
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–6 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. NYJ are 7-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 19/30 | 174 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 14 | 40 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Bo Nix | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Nate Adkins | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 |
| Pat Bryant | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Troy Franklin | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 9/17 | 45 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 22 | 59 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 3 | 8 | 13 | 0 |
| Mason Taylor | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyler Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Arian Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Davis | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
35.2%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.98
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.28