2021 · Week 3

Final

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

0·26

Broncos

Denver

QB Teddy Bridgewater

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

DEN -10.5

Total

42

Model margin

+4.3est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.072EPA / play+0.021
  • 42.1%Success rate44.7%
  • -0.066EPA / dropback+0.100
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.093
  • 8.7%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -7.25CPOE+2.34
  • 37.8%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 60.1%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.89
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 10–6 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. DEN are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6DEN @ NYJ13–11DEN
2024 · W4DEN @ NYJ10–9DEN
2023 · W5NYJ @ DEN31–21NYJ
2022 · W7NYJ @ DEN16–9NYJ
2020 · W4DEN @ NYJ37–28DEN
2018 · W5DEN @ NYJ16–34NYJ
2017 · W14NYJ @ DEN0–23DEN
2014 · W6DEN @ NYJ31–17DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–DEN
DENQ1 15:00523Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:48416Punt0–0
DENQ1 10:371269Touchdown0–7
NYJQ1 3:273-10Punt0–7
DENQ1 1:49537Field goal0–10
NYJQ2 14:501237Punt0–10
DENQ2 7:47313Punt0–10
NYJQ2 5:223-9Punt0–10
DENQ2 3:381055Touchdown0–17
NYJQ2 0:56421End of half0–17
NYJQ3 15:0038Punt0–17
DENQ3 14:00722Field goal0–20
NYJQ3 9:2369Punt0–20
DENQ3 5:58417Punt0–20
NYJQ3 3:08739Turnover on downs0–20
DENQ4 14:141160Field goal0–23
NYJQ4 6:41433Turnover0–23
DENQ4 5:26430Turnover0–23
NYJQ4 3:394-8Turnover on downs0–23
DENQ4 3:02518Field goal0–26
NYJQ4 1:00426Turnover0–26
DENQ4 0:3000End of half0–26

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson19/3516002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Carter9242.70
Ty Johnson3175.70
Zach Wilson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Davis510410
Keelan Cole22300
Braxton Berrios23260
Elijah Moore36220
Jeff Smith11130
Tyler Kroft22120
Ty Johnson1560
Ryan Griffin1150
Michael Carter2350

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater19/2523500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon18603.31
Javonte Williams12292.41
Teddy Bridgewater4246.00
Damarea Crockett372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tim Patrick55980
Courtland Sutton55370
Javonte Williams34330
KJ Hamler13280
Melvin Gordon12210
Noah Fant23150
Albert Okwuegbunam1160
Diontae Spencer11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

1.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.5%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.56
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.27