Closing spread
DEN -10.5
Total
42
Model margin
+4.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play+0.021
- 42.1%Success rate44.7%
- -0.066EPA / dropback+0.100
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.093
- 8.7%Explosive rate9.1%
- -7.25CPOE+2.34
- 37.8%Third-down rate38.3%
- 60.1%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.70Points / drive1.89
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–6 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. DEN are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 19/35 | 160 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carter | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Zach Wilson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 5 | 10 | 41 | 0 |
| Keelan Cole | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Braxton Berrios | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Jeff Smith | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Tyler Kroft | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 19/25 | 235 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 18 | 60 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Javonte Williams | 12 | 29 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Damarea Crockett | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Patrick | 5 | 5 | 98 | 0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 5 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| KJ Hamler | 1 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Albert Okwuegbunam | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Diontae Spencer | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
1.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.5%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.56
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.27