2023 · Week 5

Final

Jets

New York

QB Zach Wilson

31·21

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

DEN -2.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapBroncos
  • -0.230EPA / play-0.046
  • 35.6%Success rate42.3%
  • -0.250EPA / dropback-0.005
  • -0.191EPA / rush-0.110
  • 6.2%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -5.18CPOE+3.74
  • 25.5%Third-down rate36.8%
  • 39.2%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
  • 1.01Points / drive1.87
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 10–6 since 1999

DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. DEN are 9-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W6DEN @ NYJ13–11DEN
2024 · W4DEN @ NYJ10–9DEN
2022 · W7NYJ @ DEN16–9NYJ
2021 · W3NYJ @ DEN0–26DEN
2020 · W4DEN @ NYJ37–28DEN
2018 · W5DEN @ NYJ16–34NYJ
2017 · W14NYJ @ DEN0–23DEN
2014 · W6DEN @ NYJ31–17DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–DEN
NYJQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:48413Field goal3–0
DENQ1 11:19880Touchdown3–7
NYJQ1 7:34420Punt5–7
DENQ1 4:2410Safety5–7
NYJQ1 4:174-14Punt5–7
DENQ1 1:59752Field goal5–10
NYJQ2 12:471067Field goal8–10
DENQ2 6:411151Field goal8–13
NYJQ2 1:48967End of half8–13
DENQ3 15:0034Punt14–13
NYJQ3 13:39172Touchdown15–13
DENQ3 13:2946Punt15–13
NYJQ3 11:19940Field goal18–13
DENQ3 5:163-6Punt18–13
DENQ3 3:5020Turnover18–13
NYJQ3 3:111152Field goal21–13
DENQ4 12:193-2Punt21–13
NYJQ4 10:25441Field goal24–13
DENQ4 7:27860Touchdown24–21
NYJQ4 4:44648Turnover24–21
DENQ4 2:14736Opp touchdown31–21
DENQ4 0:29427End of half31–21

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Wilson19/2619901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Breece Hall221778.01
Zach Wilson3268.70
Dalvin Cook6233.80
Michael Carter188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Conklin45670
Garrett Wilson37540
Allen Lazard34330
Breece Hall33170
Michael Carter33140
C.J. Uzomah22120
Jeremy Ruckert1120
Randall Cobb0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson20/3119620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jaleel McLaughlin9687.60
Russell Wilson7497.00
Samaje Perine6223.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Samaje Perine45730
Jerry Jeudy67500
Adam Trautman45261
Jaleel McLaughlin34211
Courtland Sutton13130
Brandon Johnson1190
Marvin Mims Jr.1140
Nate Adkins0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

40.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.48
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.18