Closing spread
DEN -2.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.230EPA / play-0.046
- 35.6%Success rate42.3%
- -0.250EPA / dropback-0.005
- -0.191EPA / rush-0.110
- 6.2%Explosive rate8.6%
- -5.18CPOE+3.74
- 25.5%Third-down rate36.8%
- 39.2%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
- 1.01Points / drive1.87
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 10–6 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 37.7 points. DEN are 9-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Wilson | 19/26 | 199 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 22 | 177 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Zach Wilson | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| Garrett Wilson | 3 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Breece Hall | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Michael Carter | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/31 | 196 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 9 | 68 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 7 | 49 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 5 | 73 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 4 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 3 | 4 | 21 | 1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Brandon Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Nate Adkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
40.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.48
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.18