1999 · Week 4 · Division
Final
Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
MIN -7
Total
40.5
Model margin
-1.5est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
4.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.149EPA / play+0.042
- 35.1%Success rate44.6%
- -0.110EPA / dropback+0.128
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.092
- 7.7%Explosive rate10.9%
- 35.3%Third-down rate44.4%
- 37.2%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.03Points / drive1.72
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.164EPA / play allowed-0.008
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. MIN are 5-10-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 12:57 | 4 | 82 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 10:47 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 9:31 | 6 | 39 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| TB | Q1 6:50 | 8 | 25 | Punt | 0–14 |
| MIN | Q1 2:21 | 5 | 71 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| TB | Q1 0:22 | 11 | 73 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| MIN | Q2 9:22 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 7–21 |
| TB | Q2 6:21 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 7–21 |
| MIN | Q2 3:40 | 9 | 59 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| TB | Q2 0:21 | 1 | 5 | End of half | 7–21 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–21 |
| TB | Q3 13:04 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 7–21 |
| MIN | Q3 9:47 | 13 | 52 | Punt | 7–21 |
| TB | Q3 2:25 | 8 | 21 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| MIN | Q4 15:00 | 8 | 22 | Missed field goal | 7–21 |
| TB | Q4 10:08 | 5 | 72 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| MIN | Q4 7:34 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 14–21 |
| TB | Q4 5:54 | 9 | 51 | Turnover | 14–21 |
| MIN | Q4 1:54 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 14–21 |
| TB | Q4 1:36 | 8 | 67 | End of half | 14–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Dilfer | 25/39 | 301 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 16 | 49 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reidel Anthony | 7 | 9 | 94 | 1 |
| Dave Moore | 4 | 5 | 58 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 4 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Karl Williams | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Darnell McDonald | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Yo Murphy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cunningham | 26/34 | 296 | 3 | 1 |
| Jeff George | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 19 | 59 | 3.1 | 0 |
| David Palmer | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cunningham | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 4 | 7 | 120 | 2 |
| Cris Carter | 6 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 2 | 2 | 37 | 1 |
| Jake Reed | 2 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Robert Smith | 6 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| David Palmer | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
4.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.0%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.51