2008 · Week 11

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Gus Frerotte

13·19

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jeff Garcia

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

TB -4.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+1.8est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.039EPA / play-0.033
  • 40.9%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.001EPA / dropback+0.028
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.126
  • 9.0%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -2.18CPOE+1.84
  • 39.7%Third-down rate38.9%
  • 53.5%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.55
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–5 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. TB are 10-4-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W1TB @ MIN20–17TB
2020 · W14MIN @ TB14–26TB
2017 · W3TB @ MIN17–34MIN
2014 · W8MIN @ TB19–13MIN
2012 · W8TB @ MIN36–17TB
2011 · W2TB @ MIN24–20TB
2005 · W1TB @ MIN24–13TB
2002 · W9MIN @ TB24–38TB

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gus Frerotte14/2013810
Sidney Rice0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson19854.50
Chester Taylor5112.20
Gus Frerotte231.50

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Garcia23/3025500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn20532.60
Jeff Garcia6213.50
Clifton Smith4215.30
Antonio Bryant199.00
Earnest Graham133.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+1.76