2008 · Week 11
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
TB -4.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.039EPA / play-0.033
- 40.9%Success rate43.2%
- +0.001EPA / dropback+0.028
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.126
- 9.0%Explosive rate7.5%
- -2.18CPOE+1.84
- 39.7%Third-down rate38.9%
- 53.5%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.59Points / drive1.55
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. TB are 10-5-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 13:58 | 5 | 27 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 11:37 | 7 | 41 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| TB | Q1 6:53 | 8 | 73 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| MIN | Q1 2:48 | 9 | 57 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| TB | Q2 13:33 | 10 | 56 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| MIN | Q2 7:48 | 11 | 51 | Field goal | 13–6 |
| TB | Q2 1:47 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 13–6 |
| MIN | Q2 0:47 | 3 | 9 | End of half | 13–6 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 95 | Touchdown | 13–13 |
| MIN | Q3 9:25 | 7 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 13–13 |
| TB | Q3 5:50 | 5 | 21 | Turnover | 13–13 |
| MIN | Q3 3:21 | 7 | 33 | Punt | 13–13 |
| TB | Q4 14:28 | 12 | 69 | Field goal | 13–16 |
| MIN | Q4 5:36 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 13–16 |
| TB | Q4 5:29 | 6 | 18 | Field goal | 13–19 |
| MIN | Q4 3:30 | 4 | 7 | Turnover on downs | 13–19 |
| TB | Q4 2:24 | 3 | -1 | Missed field goal | 13–19 |
| MIN | Q4 1:55 | 3 | 3 | Turnover | 13–19 |
| TB | Q4 1:14 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 14/20 | 138 | 1 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 19 | 85 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 23/30 | 255 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 20 | 53 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Clifton Smith | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+1.76