2012 · Week 8

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

36·17

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -5

Total

43

Model margin

+3.7est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapVikings
  • +0.018EPA / play+0.011
  • 41.0%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.053EPA / dropback+0.030
  • -0.038EPA / rush-0.013
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -4.01CPOE-2.66
  • 35.9%Third-down rate37.4%
  • 63.4%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 1.74Points / drive1.91
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–6 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. MIN are 5-10-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3MIN @ TB23–16MIN
2023 · W1TB @ MIN20–17TB
2020 · W14MIN @ TB14–26TB
2017 · W3TB @ MIN17–34MIN
2014 · W8MIN @ TB19–13MIN
2011 · W2TB @ MIN24–20TB
2008 · W11MIN @ TB13–19TB
2005 · W1TB @ MIN24–13TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–MIN
MINQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
TBQ1 13:5934Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:2635Punt0–0
TBQ1 11:36548Field goal3–0
MINQ1 9:4833Punt3–0
TBQ1 8:07848Touchdown10–0
MINQ1 3:34427Turnover10–0
TBQ1 1:40937Field goal13–0
MINQ2 12:20665Touchdown13–7
TBQ2 9:3932Punt13–7
MINQ2 8:37423Turnover13–7
TBQ2 7:08637Touchdown20–7
MINQ2 4:30947Field goal20–10
TBQ2 1:40420Punt20–10
MINQ2 0:2526End of half20–10
TBQ3 15:00480Touchdown27–10
MINQ3 13:393-2Punt27–10
TBQ3 12:12738Field goal30–10
MINQ3 7:50264Touchdown30–17
TBQ3 7:2837Punt30–17
MINQ3 5:5032Punt30–17
TBQ3 3:593-5Punt30–17
MINQ3 2:4434Punt30–17
TBQ3 1:121682Touchdown36–17
MINQ4 7:03966Turnover on downs36–17
TBQ4 4:29522Punt36–17
MINQ4 2:35651Turnover36–17
TBQ4 0:5700End of half36–17

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman19/3626230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin291354.71
LeGarrette Blount8162.00
Arrelious Benn199.00
Josh Freeman3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Martin36791
Mike Williams611681
Dallas Clark33400
Vincent Jackson26400
Tiquan Underwood35270
D.J. Ware1270
Arrelious Benn0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder19/3525111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson151238.21
Christian Ponder4123.00
Toby Gerhart166.00
Percy Harvin1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin712901
Michael Jenkins49780
Jerome Simpson27370
Toby Gerhart22200
Kyle Rudolph22170
Rhett Ellison1150
Adrian Peterson1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.1%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.74