2012 · Week 8
Final
Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
MIN -5
Total
43
Model margin
+3.7est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play+0.011
- 41.0%Success rate42.1%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.030
- -0.038EPA / rush-0.013
- 9.8%Explosive rate9.7%
- -4.01CPOE-2.66
- 35.9%Third-down rate37.4%
- 63.4%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.74Points / drive1.91
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–5 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. MIN are 4-10-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 19/36 | 262 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 29 | 135 | 4.7 | 1 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 8 | 16 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 3 | 6 | 79 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 6 | 11 | 68 | 1 |
| Dallas Clark | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 2 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| D.J. Ware | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 19/35 | 251 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 15 | 123 | 8.2 | 1 |
| Christian Ponder | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 7 | 12 | 90 | 1 |
| Michael Jenkins | 4 | 9 | 78 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 2 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.74