2011 · Week 2
Final
Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
MIN -1
Total
41
Model margin
+6.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.107EPA / play-0.054
- 43.0%Success rate39.2%
- -0.081EPA / dropback-0.073
- -0.164EPA / rush-0.026
- 6.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- -1.20CPOE-5.80
- 37.0%Third-down rate38.8%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.39Points / drive1.60
- 3.6%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–5 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. MIN are 4-10-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 22/31 | 243 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeGarrette Blount | 13 | 71 | 5.5 | 2 |
| Earnest Graham | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston Parker | 6 | 7 | 98 | 0 |
| Kellen Winslow | 4 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Dezmon Briscoe | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Arrelious Benn | 1 | 2 | 25 | 1 |
| Earnest Graham | 5 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 18/30 | 228 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 25 | 120 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 36 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 7 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 1 | 42 | 0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 3 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 1 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.4%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.97
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.58