2011 · Week 2

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

24·20

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Donovan McNabb

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -1

Total

41

Model margin

+6.6est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapVikings
  • -0.107EPA / play-0.054
  • 43.0%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.081EPA / dropback-0.073
  • -0.164EPA / rush-0.026
  • 6.3%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -1.20CPOE-5.80
  • 37.0%Third-down rate38.8%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 1.39Points / drive1.60
  • 3.6%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–6 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. MIN are 5-10-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3MIN @ TB23–16MIN
2023 · W1TB @ MIN20–17TB
2020 · W14MIN @ TB14–26TB
2017 · W3TB @ MIN17–34MIN
2014 · W8MIN @ TB19–13MIN
2012 · W8TB @ MIN36–17TB
2008 · W11MIN @ TB13–19TB
2005 · W1TB @ MIN24–13TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–MIN
TBQ1 15:003-2Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:00637Punt0–0
TBQ1 11:00743Punt0–0
MINQ1 6:431290Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 0:0244Punt0–7
MINQ2 12:511482Field goal0–10
TBQ2 5:0630Punt0–10
MINQ2 3:39875Touchdown0–17
TBQ2 0:52417End of half0–17
MINQ3 15:00412Punt0–17
TBQ3 11:39244Touchdown7–17
MINQ3 10:5900Turnover7–17
TBQ3 10:56741Turnover7–17
MINQ3 7:3844Punt7–17
TBQ3 5:28962Field goal10–17
MINQ3 0:291246Field goal10–20
TBQ4 9:41865Touchdown17–20
MINQ4 6:39517Punt17–20
TBQ4 4:12961Touchdown24–20
MINQ4 0:31335Turnover24–20

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman22/3124311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeGarrette Blount13715.52
Earnest Graham3186.00
Josh Freeman3165.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Preston Parker67980
Kellen Winslow48440
Dezmon Briscoe44420
Arrelious Benn12251
Earnest Graham55210
Luke Stocker11170
Mike Williams14-40

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb18/3022800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson251204.82
Toby Gerhart23618.00
Percy Harvin2189.00
Donovan McNabb4123.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin78760
Toby Gerhart11420
Michael Jenkins33290
Visanthe Shiancoe37280
Adrian Peterson22210
Bernard Berrian14170
Kyle Rudolph11150
Jimmy Kleinsasser0100
Devin Aromashodu0200
Lorenzo Booker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.01%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.4%

Expected total

45.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.97
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.58