2026 · Week 3
Scheduled
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
TB -1.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-5.7est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.055EPA / play-0.081
- 37.7%Success rate51.8%
- +0.208EPA / dropback-0.168
- -0.125EPA / rush+0.118
- 3.3%Explosive rate5.4%
- -4.89CPOE+14.02
- 57.1%Third-down rate50.0%
- 83.3%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 2.90Points / drive1.44
- 1.6%Turnover rate7.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–5 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. TB are 10-4-1 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
34.2%
Expected total
41.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-7.91
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.69