2026 · Week 3

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kyler Murray

23·16

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

MIN -1.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+0.3est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.099EPA / play-0.081
  • 36.7%Success rate40.9%
  • -0.029EPA / dropback-0.130
  • -0.195EPA / rush-0.011
  • 7.6%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +0.39CPOE-2.76
  • 38.6%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 46.3%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.86
  • 1.1%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–6 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. TB are 10-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W1TB @ MIN20–17TB
2020 · W14MIN @ TB14–26TB
2017 · W3TB @ MIN17–34MIN
2014 · W8MIN @ TB19–13MIN
2012 · W8TB @ MIN36–17TB
2011 · W2TB @ MIN24–20TB
2008 · W11MIN @ TB13–19TB
2005 · W1TB @ MIN24–13TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–TB
MINQ1 15:00750Field goal3–0
TBQ1 10:2035Touchdown10–0
TBQ1 8:38565Touchdown10–7
MINQ1 6:44724Punt10–7
TBQ1 2:2538Punt10–7
MINQ1 1:0933Punt10–7
TBQ2 13:4936Punt10–7
MINQ2 12:113-3Punt10–7
TBQ2 10:06862Field goal10–10
MINQ2 5:33473Touchdown17–10
TBQ2 4:11610Punt17–10
MINQ2 1:3936Punt17–10
TBQ2 0:56517Punt17–10
TBQ3 15:00512Punt17–10
MINQ3 12:21417Punt17–10
TBQ3 10:1935Punt17–10
MINQ3 9:243-1Turnover17–10
TBQ3 8:3532Field goal17–13
MINQ3 7:1236Punt17–13
TBQ3 5:5851Punt17–13
MINQ3 2:5733Punt17–13
TBQ3 1:2036Punt17–13
MINQ4 14:1740Punt17–13
TBQ4 13:23825Field goal17–16
MINQ4 9:021136Field goal20–16
TBQ4 3:10510Turnover20–16
MINQ4 1:39416Field goal23–16
TBQ4 0:3349Turnover23–16

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray15/2916811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones17583.40
Kyler Murray2178.50
DeeJay Dallas122.00
Demond Claiborne310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Addison59901
Aaron Jones56340
Justin Jefferson22320
T.J. Hockenson24110
Jauan Jennings1210
Tai Felton0200

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield17/3421711
Jalon Daniels0/3001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bucky Irving15463.10
Jalon Daniels199.00
Baker Mayfield263.00
Kenny Gainwell3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emeka Egbuka59620
Cade Otton36560
Ted Hurst III13401
Chris Godwin Jr.34250
Kenny Gainwell25140
Bucky Irving24120
Tez Johnson1280
Payne Durham0100
Jalen McMillan0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.7%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.0%

Expected total

41.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.35