2017 · Week 3
Final
U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
PK
Total
41
Model margin
+5.0est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.026
- 44.2%Success rate42.5%
- +0.090EPA / dropback+0.155
- -0.167EPA / rush-0.142
- 6.5%Explosive rate8.8%
- +3.38CPOE+3.66
- 42.9%Third-down rate44.3%
- 57.7%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.79Points / drive2.02
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–5 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. MIN are 4-10-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 28/40 | 328 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Reedy | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 7 | 84 | 1 |
| Adam Humphries | 6 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 7 | 12 | 67 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 4 | 4 | 33 | 1 |
| O.J. Howard | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Bernard Reedy | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Alan Cross | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Case Keenum | 25/33 | 369 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 27 | 97 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Case Keenum | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs | 8 | 11 | 173 | 2 |
| Adam Thielen | 5 | 8 | 98 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 5 | 5 | 72 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.3%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.25
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.99