2017 · Week 3

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

17·34

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Case Keenum

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

PK

Total

41

Model margin

+5.0est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

1.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapVikings
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.026
  • 44.2%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.090EPA / dropback+0.155
  • -0.167EPA / rush-0.142
  • 6.5%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +3.38CPOE+3.66
  • 42.9%Third-down rate44.3%
  • 57.7%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 1.79Points / drive2.02
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–6 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. MIN are 5-10-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3MIN @ TB23–16MIN
2023 · W1TB @ MIN20–17TB
2020 · W14MIN @ TB14–26TB
2014 · W8MIN @ TB19–13MIN
2012 · W8TB @ MIN36–17TB
2011 · W2TB @ MIN24–20TB
2008 · W11MIN @ TB13–19TB
2005 · W1TB @ MIN24–13TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–MIN
MINQ1 15:00775Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 10:58753Field goal3–7
MINQ1 6:18725Punt3–7
TBQ1 2:56415Punt3–7
MINQ1 1:221469Touchdown3–14
TBQ2 10:2535Punt3–14
MINQ2 8:35612Punt3–14
TBQ2 5:37552Turnover3–14
MINQ2 3:51692Touchdown3–21
TBQ2 0:47518Punt3–21
MINQ2 0:0400End of half3–21
TBQ3 15:0038Punt3–21
MINQ3 13:28366Touchdown3–28
TBQ3 12:25746Touchdown10–28
MINQ3 8:471378Field goal10–31
TBQ3 2:24865Touchdown17–31
MINQ4 15:0037Punt17–31
TBQ4 13:33321Turnover17–31
MINQ4 12:25516Field goal17–34
TBQ4 8:40859Turnover17–34
MINQ4 5:41757End of half17–34

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston28/4032823

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jacquizz Rodgers5153.00
Charles Sims242.00
Jameis Winston144.00
Bernard Reedy133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson47841
Adam Humphries610680
Mike Evans712670
Chris Godwin Jr.33440
Cameron Brate44331
O.J. Howard11120
Charles Sims1190
Bernard Reedy1160
Alan Cross1150

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum25/3336930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook27973.61
Case Keenum6183.00
Latavius Murray252.50
Jerick McKinnon252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Stefon Diggs8111732
Adam Thielen58980
Dalvin Cook55720
Jarius Wright2391
Kyle Rudolph1240
Laquon Treadwell1120
Jerick McKinnon22-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line 03.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.3%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.25
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.99