2020 · Week 14

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

14·26

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TB -7

Total

52.5

Model margin

+5.2est.

TB perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.089EPA / play+0.149
  • 49.1%Success rate46.9%
  • +0.175EPA / dropback+0.239
  • -0.025EPA / rush-0.032
  • 11.4%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +4.45CPOE+3.10
  • 41.2%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 74.1%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
  • 2.30Points / drive2.68
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–6 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. TB are 10-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3MIN @ TB23–16MIN
2023 · W1TB @ MIN20–17TB
2017 · W3TB @ MIN17–34MIN
2014 · W8MIN @ TB19–13MIN
2012 · W8TB @ MIN36–17TB
2011 · W2TB @ MIN24–20TB
2008 · W11MIN @ TB13–19TB
2005 · W1TB @ MIN24–13TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–TB
MINQ1 15:00830Punt0–0
TBQ1 10:02521Punt0–0
MINQ1 7:321579Touchdown6–0
TBQ2 14:1733Punt6–0
MINQ2 13:24735Missed field goal6–0
TBQ2 9:30474Touchdown6–7
MINQ2 7:41644Missed field goal6–7
TBQ2 4:371141Touchdown6–14
MINQ2 0:4433Punt6–14
TBQ2 0:21325Field goal6–17
TBQ3 15:00975Touchdown6–23
MINQ3 10:091675Touchdown14–23
TBQ3 1:36311Punt14–23
MINQ3 0:451150Missed field goal14–23
TBQ4 9:00734Field goal14–26
MINQ4 5:161219Turnover14–26
TBQ4 2:05221End of half14–26

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins24/3722510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook221024.61
Kirk Cousins5418.20
Ameer Abdullah3113.70
Mike Boone284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Irv Smith44631
Tyler Conklin55400
Adam Thielen34390
Justin Jefferson48390
Ameer Abdullah22100
Dalvin Cook2480
Mike Boone1140
Tajae Sharpe0100
Chad Beebe0300

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady15/2319620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronald Jones18804.41
LeSean McCoy4328.00
Tom Brady3-2-0.70
Ke'Shawn Vaughn1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans35560
Antonio Brown55490
Scott Miller12481
Chris Godwin Jr.23250
Cameron Brate1190
Ronald Jones1240
LeSean McCoy1130
Rob Gronkowski1221
Antony Auclair0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

4.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.9%

Expected total

47.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.94
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+5.20