2020 · Week 14
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -7
Total
52.5
Model margin
+5.2est.
TB perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.089EPA / play+0.149
- 49.1%Success rate46.9%
- +0.175EPA / dropback+0.239
- -0.025EPA / rush-0.032
- 11.4%Explosive rate9.6%
- +4.45CPOE+3.10
- 41.2%Third-down rate44.2%
- 74.1%Red-zone TD rate67.2%
- 2.30Points / drive2.68
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–5 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. TB are 10-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 24/37 | 225 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 22 | 102 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Kirk Cousins | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irv Smith | 4 | 4 | 63 | 1 |
| Tyler Conklin | 5 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 4 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chad Beebe | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 15/23 | 196 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones | 18 | 80 | 4.4 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 3 | 5 | 56 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 2 | 48 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Antony Auclair | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
4.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.9%
Expected total
47.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.94
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+5.20