2014 · Week 8
Final / OT
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
TB -1
Total
43
Model margin
+3.4est.
TB perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.034EPA / play-0.111
- 42.2%Success rate38.5%
- -0.018EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.190
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.9%
- -2.18CPOE-1.50
- 39.7%Third-down rate36.6%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.59Points / drive1.33
- 1.9%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–5 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. TB are 10-4-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 24/42 | 241 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 16 | 83 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 6 | 12 | 86 | 0 |
| Chase Ford | 6 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 3 | 6 | 38 | 1 |
| Matt Asiata | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 19/28 | 171 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Mike James | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Robert Herron | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 4 | 7 | 78 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 6 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Vincent Jackson | 1 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.1%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.59
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.92
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.37