2014 · Week 8

Final / OT

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

19·13

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Mike Glennon

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TB -1

Total

43

Model margin

+3.4est.

TB perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.034EPA / play-0.111
  • 42.2%Success rate38.5%
  • -0.018EPA / dropback-0.069
  • -0.061EPA / rush-0.190
  • 7.6%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -2.18CPOE-1.50
  • 39.7%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.33
  • 1.9%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–6 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. TB are 10-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3MIN @ TB23–16MIN
2023 · W1TB @ MIN20–17TB
2020 · W14MIN @ TB14–26TB
2017 · W3TB @ MIN17–34MIN
2012 · W8TB @ MIN36–17TB
2011 · W2TB @ MIN24–20TB
2008 · W11MIN @ TB13–19TB
2005 · W1TB @ MIN24–13TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–TB
TBQ1 15:00932Turnover0–0
MINQ1 9:51847Missed field goal0–0
TBQ1 4:34614Punt0–0
MINQ1 1:19618Punt0–0
TBQ2 13:32416Punt0–0
MINQ2 11:48411Punt0–0
TBQ2 9:0933Punt0–0
MINQ2 7:3037Punt0–0
TBQ2 5:2039Punt0–0
MINQ2 3:37610Punt0–0
TBQ2 1:503-2Punt0–0
MINQ2 0:59338Field goal3–0
MINQ3 15:00829Punt3–0
TBQ3 11:543-1Punt3–0
MINQ3 10:18663Touchdown10–0
TBQ3 7:09814Punt10–0
MINQ3 2:2930Punt10–0
TBQ3 0:39415Field goal10–3
MINQ4 14:121049Punt10–3
TBQ4 11:03653Field goal10–6
MINQ4 7:1936Punt10–6
TBQ4 5:401062Touchdown10–13
MINQ4 2:02954Field goal13–13
TBOT110Opp touchdown19–13

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater24/4224110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon16835.20
Cordarrelle Patterson11010.00
Teddy Bridgewater133.00
Matt Asiata410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cordarrelle Patterson612860
Chase Ford66610
Greg Jennings36381
Matt Asiata45260
Charles D. Johnson25180
Jarius Wright23130
Rhett Ellison0100
Adam Thielen0100
Jerick McKinnon11-10

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon19/2817111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin10272.70
Bobby Rainey8253.10
Mike Glennon3134.30
Mike James111.00
Robert Herron100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans47780
Bobby Rainey66410
Austin Seferian-Jenkins34261
Vincent Jackson15130
Louis Murphy22110
Brandon Myers1230
Doug Martin22-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.1%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.59
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.92
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.37