2023 · Week 1
Final
U.S. Bank Stadium · dome
Closing spread
MIN -4
Total
45
Model margin
+4.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.025
- 40.5%Success rate43.2%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.039
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.158
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.4%
- +0.25CPOE+2.80
- 42.2%Third-down rate37.5%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
- 1.86Points / drive1.84
- 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 10–5 since 1999
TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. MIN are 4-10-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 21/34 | 173 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 17 | 39 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 8 | 11 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Rakim Jarrett | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 6 | 10 | 66 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Trey Palmer | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| Ko Kieft | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 33/44 | 344 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 9 | 12 | 150 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 4 | 6 | 61 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 8 | 9 | 35 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.64
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.74
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.81