2023 · Week 1

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

20·17

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome

Closing spread

MIN -4

Total

45

Model margin

+4.8est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapVikings
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.025
  • 40.5%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.110EPA / dropback+0.039
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.158
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +0.25CPOE+2.80
  • 42.2%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.84
  • 1.7%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 10–6 since 1999

Meetings average 43.8 points. MIN are 5-10-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3MIN @ TB23–16MIN
2020 · W14MIN @ TB14–26TB
2017 · W3TB @ MIN17–34MIN
2014 · W8MIN @ TB19–13MIN
2012 · W8TB @ MIN36–17TB
2011 · W2TB @ MIN24–20TB
2008 · W11MIN @ TB13–19TB
2005 · W1TB @ MIN24–13TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–MIN
MINQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
TBQ1 14:1232Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:36961Turnover0–0
TBQ1 8:19514Punt0–0
MINQ1 6:143-6Turnover0–0
TBQ1 4:5830Field goal3–0
MINQ1 3:2338Punt3–0
TBQ1 1:0537Punt3–0
MINQ2 14:08683Touchdown3–7
TBQ2 11:1536Punt3–7
MINQ2 9:24862Field goal3–10
TBQ2 5:4135Punt3–10
MINQ2 4:5539Punt3–10
TBQ2 2:39756Touchdown10–10
MINQ2 1:09662Turnover10–10
TBQ2 0:1615End of half10–10
TBQ3 15:001670Touchdown17–10
MINQ3 6:011776Touchdown17–17
TBQ4 13:37515Punt17–17
MINQ4 11:1133Punt17–17
TBQ4 9:56938Field goal20–17
MINQ4 5:1033Punt20–17
TBQ4 3:52727End of half20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield21/3417320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White17392.30
Sean Tucker5153.00
Baker Mayfield8111.40
Chase Edmonds284.00
Rakim Jarrett100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans610661
Chris Godwin Jr.56510
Cade Otton23190
Rachaad White22100
Deven Thompkins23100
Sean Tucker2290
Trey Palmer2381
Ko Kieft0300

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins33/4434421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alexander Mattison11343.10
Kirk Cousins372.30
Ty Chandler300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson9121500
Jordan Addison46611
T.J. Hockenson89350
Josh Oliver33320
K.J. Osborn36310
Ty Chandler11180
Alexander Mattison34101

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.9%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.64
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.74
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.81