1999 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Tony Graziani

20·17

Saints

New Orleans

QB Billy Joe Hobert

Louisiana Superdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

NO -3

Total

35.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

NO perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSaints
  • -0.094EPA / play-0.148
  • 38.5%Success rate36.9%
  • -0.017EPA / dropback-0.081
  • -0.220EPA / rush-0.247
  • 7.2%Explosive rate7.7%
  • 35.1%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 54.7%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
  • 1.22Points / drive1.12
  • 3.3%Turnover rate3.4%
  • +0.013EPA / play allowed+0.007

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. NO are 30-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NO
ATLQ1 15:001272Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 8:171755Missed field goal7–0
ATLQ2 14:5710Turnover7–0
NOQ2 14:5036Field goal7–3
ATLQ2 13:12424Punt7–9
NOQ2 10:00190Touchdown7–10
ATLQ2 9:473-4Turnover7–10
NOQ2 8:17513Missed field goal7–10
ATLQ2 6:1634Punt7–10
NOQ2 4:05518Punt7–10
ATLQ2 2:4339Punt7–10
NOQ2 1:481076Touchdown7–17
ATLQ2 0:4623End of half7–17
NOQ3 15:0037Punt7–17
ATLQ3 13:17572Touchdown14–17
NOQ3 10:5933Punt14–17
ATLQ3 9:4839Punt14–17
NOQ3 8:20438Turnover14–17
ATLQ3 5:51418Punt14–17
NOQ3 4:1737Turnover14–17
ATLQ3 2:49813Field goal17–17
NOQ4 14:173-3Punt17–17
ATLQ4 12:34722Field goal20–17
NOQ4 8:291156Turnover on downs20–17
ATLQ4 2:0039Punt20–17
NOQ4 0:42324End of half20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Graziani11/2016210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ken Oxendine20572.90
Byron Hanspard10323.20
Tony Graziani2147.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terance Mathis510671
Jammi German12620
Reggie Kelly11160
Chris Calloway1190
Ken Oxendine2340
Brian Kozlowski0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Billy Joe Tolliver13/2618512
Billy Joe Hobert9/1415310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams19532.80
Lamar Smith294.50
Billy Joe Tolliver393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eddie Kennison471381
Cameron Cleeland56690
Keith Poole35500
Brett Bech22371
Ricky Williams34160
Scott Slutzker24140
Lamar Smith2590
Andre Hastings1450

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.21
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.83
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.19