Closing spread
NO -3
Total
35.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.094EPA / play-0.148
- 38.5%Success rate36.9%
- -0.017EPA / dropback-0.081
- -0.220EPA / rush-0.247
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.7%
- 35.1%Third-down rate34.1%
- 54.7%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
- 1.22Points / drive1.12
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.4%
- +0.013EPA / play allowed+0.007
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Graziani | 11/20 | 162 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Oxendine | 20 | 57 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Byron Hanspard | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Tony Graziani | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terance Mathis | 5 | 10 | 67 | 1 |
| Jammi German | 1 | 2 | 62 | 0 |
| Reggie Kelly | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Calloway | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Ken Oxendine | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Brian Kozlowski | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Joe Tolliver | 13/26 | 185 | 1 | 2 |
| Billy Joe Hobert | 9/14 | 153 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 19 | 53 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Billy Joe Tolliver | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Kennison | 4 | 7 | 138 | 1 |
| Cameron Cleeland | 5 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Keith Poole | 3 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Brett Bech | 2 | 2 | 37 | 1 |
| Ricky Williams | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Scott Slutzker | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Lamar Smith | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Andre Hastings | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.21
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.83
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.19