Closing spread
NO -1.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+4.0est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.008EPA / play-0.076
- 44.5%Success rate42.4%
- +0.041EPA / dropback-0.032
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.155
- 9.2%Explosive rate5.5%
- -3.36CPOE+1.72
- 33.5%Third-down rate39.4%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 1.82Points / drive1.53
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 16/23 | 199 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Feleipe Franks | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 3 | 3 | 74 | 1 |
| Bijan Robinson | 2 | 2 | 37 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Dylan Drummond | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| David Sills | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 30/43 | 243 | 0 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Devin Neal | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 10 | 17 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Mason Tipton | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 9 | 13 | 70 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 6 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Devin Neal | 5 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Devaughn Vele | 3 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Mason Tipton | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.64
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.15
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.05