2025 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Kirk Cousins

24·10

Saints

New Orleans

QB Tyler Shough

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -1.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+4.0est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSaints
  • -0.008EPA / play-0.076
  • 44.5%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback-0.032
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.155
  • 9.2%Explosive rate5.5%
  • -3.36CPOE+1.72
  • 33.5%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 62.2%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
  • 1.82Points / drive1.53
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. NO are 30-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO
2022 · W1NO @ ATL27–26NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NO
ATLQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:1822Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 12:5631Field goal3–0
NOQ1 10:423-5Missed field goal3–0
ATLQ1 8:30417Punt3–0
NOQ1 5:02940Punt3–0
ATLQ1 0:17877Touchdown10–0
NOQ2 11:31722Punt10–0
ATLQ2 8:56422Opp touchdown10–7
ATLQ2 6:41841Field goal13–7
NOQ2 1:56636Missed field goal13–7
ATLQ2 0:52831Field goal16–7
NOQ3 15:001662Turnover on downs16–7
ATLQ3 7:3239Punt16–7
NOQ3 5:371550Field goal16–10
ATLQ4 12:13381Touchdown24–10
NOQ4 11:043-4Punt24–10
ATLQ4 9:22618Punt24–10
NOQ4 4:56631Turnover on downs24–10
ATLQ4 3:2434Punt24–10
NOQ4 2:571359Turnover24–10
ATLQ4 0:1000End of half24–10

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins16/2319921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson14705.00
Tyler Allgeier12443.70
Kirk Cousins252.50
Feleipe Franks122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnell Mooney33741
Bijan Robinson22370
Kyle Pitts25250
Charlie Woerner33240
Dylan Drummond33180
David Sills23161
Tyler Allgeier1150

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Shough30/4324301
Taysom Hill0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Shough7223.10
Devin Neal7182.60
Taysom Hill10171.70
Alvin Kamara3113.70
Mason Tipton11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave913700
Juwan Johnson67460
Devin Neal57430
Devaughn Vele37370
Mason Tipton34220
Dante Pettis11140
Jack Stoll1170
Alvin Kamara2240
Foster Moreau0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.9%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.64
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.15
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.05