2026 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Penix Jr.

45·24

Saints

New Orleans

QB Tyler Shough

Caesars Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -1.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSaints
  • -0.087EPA / play-0.031
  • 42.9%Success rate41.9%
  • -0.138EPA / dropback+0.041
  • -0.027EPA / rush-0.169
  • 8.7%Explosive rate6.1%
  • -7.31CPOE+0.08
  • 35.0%Third-down rate43.6%
  • 55.1%Red-zone TD rate76.7%
  • 1.72Points / drive2.19
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. NO are 30-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO
2022 · W1NO @ ATL27–26NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NO
ATLQ1 15:00380Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 13:3432Punt7–0
ATLQ1 12:36515Punt7–0
NOQ1 10:19953Missed field goal7–0
ATLQ1 5:033-4Punt7–0
NOQ1 2:5212Turnover7–0
ATLQ1 2:47613Touchdown14–0
NOQ1 0:48354Touchdown14–7
ATLQ2 14:571065Touchdown21–7
NOQ2 8:5934Punt21–7
ATLQ2 7:52975Field goal24–7
NOQ2 3:07832Punt24–7
ATLQ2 0:42211End of half24–7
NOQ3 15:001347Field goal24–10
ATLQ3 7:38974Touchdown31–10
NOQ3 2:111658Touchdown31–17
ATLQ4 13:00572Touchdown38–17
NOQ4 9:5040Turnover on downs38–17
ATLQ4 8:29321Touchdown45–17
NOQ4 6:521468Touchdown45–24
ATLQ4 1:1300End of half45–24

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Michael Penix Jr.15/2022310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson191457.62
Brian Robinson14624.43
Michael Penix Jr.2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London56960
Jahan Dotson23541
Kyle Pitts33470
Zachariah Branch22100
Austin Hooper1190
Brian Robinson1150
Bijan Robinson1220
Olamide Zaccheaus0100
Charlie Woerner0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Shough30/4828610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara7233.32
CJ Donaldson3186.00
Kendre Miller691.50
Tyler Shough252.50
Barion Brown1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave8121160
Juwan Johnson68590
Devaughn Vele69541
Alvin Kamara57350
Kendre Miller23100
Bryce Lance1570
CJ Donaldson2250
Treyton Welch0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.13
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.11