Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+7.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Falconsedge mapSaints
- -0.358EPA / play+0.030
- 36.7%Success rate44.3%
- -0.638EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.075
- 10.0%Explosive rate9.1%
- -10.42CPOE-1.21
- 16.7%Third-down rate47.1%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 0.46Points / drive2.20
- 3.3%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.11
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+7.09