Closing spread
ATL -4.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.008
- 42.4%Success rate44.5%
- -0.032EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.155EPA / rush-0.073
- 5.5%Explosive rate9.2%
- +1.72CPOE-3.36
- 39.4%Third-down rate33.5%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 1.53Points / drive1.82
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. ATL are 24-30 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 23/35 | 259 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Audric Estimé | 21 | 63 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Shough | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 1 |
| Evan Hull | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 5 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Audric Estimé | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Kevin Austin Jr. | 4 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Ronnie Bell | 2 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Samori Toure | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 18/32 | 180 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 15 | 33 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 4 | 8 | 78 | 1 |
| Kyle Pitts | 6 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 3 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| David Sills | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.64
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.15
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.16