Closing spread
ATL -4.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Saints
- OutAlvin KamaraRBKnee· DNP
- OutBryan BreseeDTKnee· DNP
- OutChris OlaveWRIllness· DNP
- OutNathan ShepherdDTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableDemario DavisLBCalf· Limited
- QuestionableDillon RadunzGKnee· Full
- QuestionableSpencer RattlerQBFinger· DNP
- DNPJack StollTEKnee
- DNPMason TiptonWRGroin
- DNPMichael DavisCBShoulder
- DNPZaire Mitchell-PadenTEAnkle
Falcons
- OutBrandon DorlusDTHamstring· DNP
- OutClark Phillips IIICBTriceps· DNP
- OutDeMarcco HellamsSHamstring· Full
- OutRonnie HarrisonLBIllness
- OutSam RobertsDTKnee· Full
- QuestionableA.J. TerrellCBIllness
- QuestionableDarnell MooneyWRKnee· Limited
- QuestionableDrake LondonWRKnee· Limited
- QuestionableKyle PittsTEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableLiam McCulloughLSIllness
- QuestionableRuke OrhorhoroDTIllness
- DNPCharlie WoernerTENot injury related - resting player
- DNPDavid OnyemataDTNot injury related - resting player
- DNPJake MatthewsTNot injury related - resting player
- DNPLeonard FloydLBNot injury related - resting player
- DNPMike HughesCBAnkle
- LimitedJessie BatesSNot injury related - resting player
- LimitedKaden EllissLBNot injury related - resting player
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.008
- 42.4%Success rate44.5%
- -0.032EPA / dropback+0.041
- -0.155EPA / rush-0.073
- 5.5%Explosive rate9.2%
- +1.72CPOE-3.36
- 39.4%Third-down rate33.5%
- 50.0%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 1.53Points / drive1.82
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–23 since 1999
ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NO–ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 12:50 | 1 | 19 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 12:39 | 8 | 27 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 8:06 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 6:09 | 5 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 4:20 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ATL | Q1 3:18 | 3 | 15 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 3:02 | 6 | 41 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| ATL | Q2 14:13 | 7 | 31 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| NO | Q2 10:19 | 12 | 63 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| ATL | Q2 4:31 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–10 |
| NO | Q2 2:48 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 7–10 |
| ATL | Q2 0:41 | 6 | 33 | End of half | 7–10 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 6 | -2 | Punt | 7–10 |
| ATL | Q3 11:03 | 5 | 41 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| NO | Q3 8:50 | 14 | 66 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| ATL | Q3 2:15 | 12 | 45 | Field goal | 10–16 |
| NO | Q4 10:43 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–16 |
| ATL | Q4 9:40 | 5 | 4 | Punt | 10–16 |
| NO | Q4 6:23 | 7 | 55 | Turnover | 10–16 |
| ATL | Q4 3:14 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 10–19 |
| NO | Q4 2:52 | 7 | 65 | Touchdown | 17–19 |
| ATL | Q4 1:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 23/35 | 259 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Audric Estimé | 21 | 63 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Shough | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 1 |
| Evan Hull | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 5 | 5 | 60 | 0 |
| Audric Estimé | 5 | 5 | 43 | 0 |
| Kevin Austin Jr. | 4 | 9 | 37 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Ronnie Bell | 2 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Samori Toure | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 18/32 | 180 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 15 | 33 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 4 | 8 | 78 | 1 |
| Kyle Pitts | 6 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 3 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| David Sills | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
1.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.64
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.15
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin-0.16