2023 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Derek Carr

15·24

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Desmond Ridder

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

NO -2

Total

42

Model margin

-0.4est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.015EPA / play-0.089
  • 42.2%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.052EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.171
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.7%
  • +1.94CPOE-3.52
  • 39.4%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 57.6%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
  • 1.82Points / drive1.58
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO
2022 · W1NO @ ATL27–26NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–ATL
NOQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:0235Punt0–0
NOQ1 12:08977Field goal3–0
ATLQ1 8:10743Turnover on downs3–0
NOQ1 5:03766Opp touchdown3–7
NOQ1 1:46721Field goal6–7
ATLQ2 14:161078Touchdown6–14
NOQ2 8:561262Field goal9–14
ATLQ2 3:541260Turnover9–14
NOQ2 0:2600End of half9–14
ATLQ3 15:00631Punt9–14
NOQ3 11:401567Field goal12–14
ATLQ3 3:27526Turnover12–14
NOQ3 1:16345Turnover12–14
ATLQ4 15:00995Touchdown12–21
NOQ4 9:57764Field goal15–21
ATLQ4 6:24959Field goal15–24
NOQ4 1:47840Missed field goal15–24
ATLQ4 0:2600End of half15–24

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr24/3830401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara15694.60
Lynn Bowden24020.00
Taysom Hill7263.70
Derek Carr273.50
Jamaal Williams263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave791140
Taysom Hill22550
Alvin Kamara45500
Juwan Johnson47450
Keith Kirkwood23200
Rashid Shaheed2590
A.T. Perry1270
Jamaal Williams2240
Lynn Bowden0200

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Desmond Ridder13/2116812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson16915.71
Tyler Allgeier10646.40
Cordarrelle Patterson8435.40
Desmond Ridder7304.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London57910
Bijan Robinson36321
Kyle Pitts22220
Van Jefferson12130
Scott Miller1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -22.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.0%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.41