Closing spread
NO -2
Total
42
Model margin
-0.4est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.015EPA / play-0.089
- 42.2%Success rate41.5%
- +0.052EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.171
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.7%
- +1.94CPOE-3.52
- 39.4%Third-down rate40.2%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 1.82Points / drive1.58
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. ATL are 24-30 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 24/38 | 304 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 15 | 69 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Lynn Bowden | 2 | 40 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 7 | 9 | 114 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 2 | 55 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 4 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| A.T. Perry | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Lynn Bowden | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 13/21 | 168 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 16 | 91 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 10 | 64 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Desmond Ridder | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 5 | 7 | 91 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 3 | 6 | 32 | 1 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.11
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.41