Closing spread
NO -5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.002EPA / play-0.037
- 45.4%Success rate45.5%
- -0.001EPA / dropback+0.018
- +0.004EPA / rush-0.109
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.6%
- -0.74CPOE+1.61
- 41.9%Third-down rate40.9%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.97Points / drive1.59
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 13/26 | 97 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 17 | 139 | 8.2 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Desmond Ridder | 6 | 38 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Caleb Huntley | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Feleipe Franks | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 7 | 11 | 70 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Avery Williams | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 11/17 | 151 | 2 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2/2 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 21 | 91 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid Shaheed | 3 | 4 | 95 | 1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 4 | 6 | 67 | 2 |
| Chris Olave | 3 | 4 | 53 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.2%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.04
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.28