2022 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Desmond Ridder

18·21

Saints

New Orleans

QB Andy Dalton

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.3est.

NO perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSaints
  • +0.002EPA / play-0.037
  • 45.4%Success rate45.5%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback+0.018
  • +0.004EPA / rush-0.109
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.6%
  • -0.74CPOE+1.61
  • 41.9%Third-down rate40.9%
  • 60.2%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.59
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. NO are 30-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W1NO @ ATL27–26NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NO
NOQ1 15:001075Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 10:0632Punt0–7
NOQ1 9:07273Touchdown0–14
ATLQ1 8:1757Punt0–14
NOQ1 6:4269Punt0–14
ATLQ1 2:061152Field goal3–14
NOQ2 11:15760Turnover3–14
ATLQ2 7:2438Punt3–14
NOQ2 5:37520Punt3–14
ATLQ2 3:181351Punt3–14
NOQ2 0:0800End of half3–14
ATLQ3 15:00970Touchdown10–14
NOQ3 10:461180Touchdown10–21
ATLQ3 3:34922Punt10–21
NOQ4 13:233-7Punt10–21
ATLQ4 11:07932Touchdown18–21
NOQ4 7:0735Punt18–21
ATLQ4 6:06952Turnover18–21
NOQ4 2:06734Turnover on downs18–21
ATLQ4 0:09224End of half18–21

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Desmond Ridder13/269700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Allgeier171398.21
Cordarrelle Patterson14523.71
Desmond Ridder6386.30
Caleb Huntley122.00
Feleipe Franks100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London711700
MyCole Pruitt23200
Avery Williams22100
Cordarrelle Patterson1300
Damiere Byrd0100
Anthony Firkser0200
Olamide Zaccheaus0300
Tyler Allgeier11-30

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton11/1715120
Taysom Hill2/28010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara21914.30
Taysom Hill7304.30
David Johnson4123.00
Andy Dalton210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashid Shaheed34951
Juwan Johnson46672
Chris Olave34530
Alvin Kamara22130
Jarvis Landry0100
Adam Trautman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.2%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.04
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.28