2024 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Derek Carr

24·26

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Kirk Cousins

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapFalcons
  • -0.057EPA / play+0.041
  • 40.6%Success rate48.4%
  • -0.071EPA / dropback+0.083
  • -0.036EPA / rush-0.015
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.7%
  • -3.67CPOE-0.01
  • 36.3%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 1.72Points / drive2.10
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. ATL are 25-30 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO
2022 · W1NO @ ATL27–26NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–ATL
ATLQ1 15:00939Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 11:13965Touchdown7–7
ATLQ1 6:39524Turnover7–7
NOQ1 4:431153Touchdown14–7
ATLQ2 13:42757Field goal14–10
NOQ2 9:57413Opp touchdown14–17
NOQ2 7:54420Punt14–17
ATLQ2 4:49741Punt14–17
NOQ2 1:49828Punt14–17
ATLQ2 0:3019End of half14–17
NOQ3 15:00627Punt14–17
ATLQ3 10:45964Field goal14–20
NOQ3 6:46950Field goal17–20
ATLQ3 1:031069Field goal17–23
NOQ4 10:091358Turnover on downs17–23
ATLQ4 3:5737Punt17–23
NOQ4 3:281052Touchdown24–23
ATLQ4 1:0055Field goal24–26
NOQ4 0:0200End of half24–26

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr28/3623901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara19774.11
Taysom Hill6244.02
Rashid Shaheed2147.00
Jamaal Williams3113.70
Derek Carr351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave810870
Rashid Shaheed811830
Alvin Kamara79420
Juwan Johnson23130
Jamaal Williams2280
Mason Tipton1160

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins21/3523801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyler Allgeier8607.50
Bijan Robinson7284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London612640
Darnell Mooney36560
Ray-Ray McCloud67520
Bijan Robinson44460
Tyler Allgeier22200
Kyle Pitts0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.09
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.79