Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play+0.041
- 40.6%Success rate48.4%
- -0.071EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.036EPA / rush-0.015
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.7%
- -3.67CPOE-0.01
- 36.3%Third-down rate39.1%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.72Points / drive2.10
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. ATL are 24-30 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 28/36 | 239 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 19 | 77 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 8 | 10 | 87 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 8 | 11 | 83 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 7 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Mason Tipton | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 21/35 | 238 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Allgeier | 8 | 60 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 6 | 12 | 64 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 3 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 6 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.09
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.79