Closing spread
NO -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.015
- 41.5%Success rate42.2%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.113
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- -3.52CPOE+1.94
- 40.2%Third-down rate39.4%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 1.58Points / drive1.82
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | 22/30 | 291 | 2 | 1 |
| Logan Woodside | 3/4 | 27 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Logan Woodside | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Desmond Ridder | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 7 | 8 | 103 | 1 |
| Scott Miller | 2 | 2 | 66 | 0 |
| Drake London | 4 | 9 | 41 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 3 | 29 | 1 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| John FitzPatrick | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 22/28 | 264 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendre Miller | 13 | 73 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 6 | 51 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 14 | 26 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Derek Carr | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Lynn Bowden | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashid Shaheed | 3 | 4 | 65 | 1 |
| Chris Olave | 3 | 3 | 56 | 1 |
| A.T. Perry | 3 | 3 | 53 | 2 |
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Lynn Bowden | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jordan Mims | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.11
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.82