2024 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Kirk Cousins

17·20

Saints

New Orleans

QB Derek Carr

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

ATL -3.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-0.4est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSaints
  • +0.041EPA / play-0.057
  • 48.4%Success rate40.6%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback-0.071
  • -0.015EPA / rush-0.036
  • 9.7%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -0.01CPOE-3.67
  • 39.1%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 2.10Points / drive1.72
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. NO are 30-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO
2022 · W1NO @ ATL27–26NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NO
ATLQ1 15:00617Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:021398Turnover on downs0–0
ATLQ1 6:5539Punt0–0
NOQ1 5:331146Field goal0–3
ATLQ2 14:50622Missed field goal0–3
NOQ2 12:06452Touchdown0–10
ATLQ2 10:48973Touchdown7–10
NOQ2 5:45470Touchdown7–17
ATLQ2 3:471053Missed field goal7–17
NOQ2 0:1500End of half7–17
NOQ3 15:0036Punt7–17
ATLQ3 13:401492Field goal10–17
NOQ3 5:42561Field goal10–20
ATLQ3 2:44463Touchdown17–20
NOQ3 1:0135Punt17–20
ATLQ4 14:4934Punt17–20
NOQ4 13:5139Punt17–20
ATLQ4 11:421051Missed field goal17–20
NOQ4 6:39313Punt17–20
ATLQ4 5:10637Turnover17–20
NOQ4 1:5936Punt17–20
ATLQ4 1:35747Turnover on downs17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins23/3830601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson201165.82
Tyler Allgeier11595.40
Ray-Ray McCloud166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London813970
Darnell Mooney59960
Kyle Pitts46550
Ray-Ray McCloud34300
Bijan Robinson34280
Charlie Woerner0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr16/2526920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara17553.20
Derek Carr4174.30
Taysom Hill4143.50
Jordan Mims2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquez Valdes-Scantling331092
Alvin Kamara56540
Taysom Hill22360
Kevin Austin Jr.22360
Juwan Johnson23220
Dante Pettis1180
Jordan Mims1240
Foster Moreau0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.6%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

7.39%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.0%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.09
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.38