Closing spread
ATL -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play-0.057
- 48.4%Success rate40.6%
- +0.083EPA / dropback-0.071
- -0.015EPA / rush-0.036
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- -0.01CPOE-3.67
- 39.1%Third-down rate36.3%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 2.10Points / drive1.72
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 23/38 | 306 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 20 | 116 | 5.8 | 2 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 11 | 59 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 8 | 13 | 97 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 5 | 9 | 96 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 16/25 | 269 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 17 | 55 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jordan Mims | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 3 | 109 | 2 |
| Alvin Kamara | 5 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Kevin Austin Jr. | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jordan Mims | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
7.39%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.09
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.38