1999 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Stoney Case

11·14

Titans

Tennessee

QB Neil O'Donnell

Adelphia Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

TEN -7

Total

38.5

Model margin

+6.3est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapTitans
  • -0.091EPA / play+0.007
  • 36.5%Success rate40.1%
  • -0.084EPA / dropback+0.067
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.083
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.5%
  • 28.4%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 40.6%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
  • 1.00Points / drive1.52
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%
  • -0.151EPA / play allowed-0.042

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–9 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. TEN are 9-12-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4TEN @ BAL18–24BAL
2023 · W6BAL @ TEN24–16BAL
2020 · playoffsBAL @ TEN20–13BAL
2020 · W11TEN @ BAL30–24TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ BAL28–12TEN
2018 · W6BAL @ TEN21–0BAL
2017 · W9BAL @ TEN20–23TEN
2014 · W10TEN @ BAL7–21BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–TEN
BALQ1 15:00516Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:16623Punt0–0
BALQ1 10:14926Field goal3–0
TENQ1 6:531061Touchdown3–7
BALQ1 1:461458Field goal6–7
TENQ2 8:33620Punt6–7
BALQ2 5:13648Turnover6–7
TENQ2 2:2536Punt6–7
BALQ2 1:0442Punt6–7
TENQ2 0:2920End of half6–7
TENQ3 15:00512Punt6–7
BALQ3 12:4573Field goal9–7
TENQ3 10:42673Touchdown9–14
BALQ3 7:2332Punt9–14
TENQ3 6:23415Punt9–14
BALQ3 4:3734Punt11–14
TENQ3 3:381-2Safety11–14
BALQ3 3:3339Punt11–14
TENQ3 1:433-6Punt11–14
BALQ3 0:2939Punt11–14
TENQ4 14:05652Punt11–14
BALQ4 10:17622Punt11–14
TENQ4 8:13619Punt11–14
BALQ4 4:105-5Punt11–14
TENQ4 1:4830Punt11–14
BALQ4 0:36252End of half11–14

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Stoney Case15/3620700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Errict Rhett21592.80
Chuck Evans273.50
Stoney Case320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermaine Lewis47580
Pat Johnson49570
Qadry Ismail39470
Justin Armour25350
Chuck Evans23100
Greg DeLong0100
A.J. Ofodile0200

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Neil O'Donnell24/3521610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George20552.80
Rodney Thomas210.50
Neil O'Donnell1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Yancey Thigpen57991
Kevin Dyson46340
Eddie George55230
Isaac Byrd33220
Frank Wycheck47190
Michael Roan1270
Derrick Mason1140
Chris Sanders0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.2%6.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

4.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.7%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.71
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.31