Closing spread
TEN -7
Total
38.5
Model margin
+6.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play+0.007
- 36.5%Success rate40.1%
- -0.084EPA / dropback+0.067
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.083
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.5%
- 28.4%Third-down rate39.0%
- 40.6%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.00Points / drive1.52
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.1%
- -0.151EPA / play allowed-0.042
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–9 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35 points. TEN are 8-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoney Case | 15/36 | 207 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errict Rhett | 21 | 59 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Chuck Evans | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Stoney Case | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Lewis | 4 | 7 | 58 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 4 | 9 | 57 | 0 |
| Qadry Ismail | 3 | 9 | 47 | 0 |
| Justin Armour | 2 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Chuck Evans | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Greg DeLong | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Ofodile | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil O'Donnell | 24/35 | 216 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 20 | 55 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yancey Thigpen | 5 | 7 | 99 | 1 |
| Kevin Dyson | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 5 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Isaac Byrd | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 4 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Michael Roan | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
4.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.7%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.71
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.31