Closing spread
BAL -10
Total
47.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play+0.203
- 45.7%Success rate48.1%
- +0.143EPA / dropback+0.322
- -0.046EPA / rush+0.088
- 11.6%Explosive rate12.0%
- +3.45CPOE+3.13
- 39.4%Third-down rate48.0%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 1.99Points / drive2.90
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–9 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35 points. BAL are 12-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 7/14 | 88 | 2 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1/1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 30 | 195 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 1 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 1 | 45 | 1 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| A.J. Brown | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Darius Jennings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 31/59 | 365 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 20 | 143 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 7 | 11 | 126 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 6 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 4 | 6 | 53 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Seth Roberts | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.6%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.50
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+4.72