2019 · DIV

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

28·12

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

BAL -10

Total

47.5

Model margin

+4.7est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapRavens
  • +0.063EPA / play+0.203
  • 45.7%Success rate48.1%
  • +0.143EPA / dropback+0.322
  • -0.046EPA / rush+0.088
  • 11.6%Explosive rate12.0%
  • +3.45CPOE+3.13
  • 39.4%Third-down rate48.0%
  • 74.8%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 1.99Points / drive2.90
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–9 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. BAL are 12-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4TEN @ BAL18–24BAL
2023 · W6BAL @ TEN24–16BAL
2020 · playoffsBAL @ TEN20–13BAL
2020 · W11TEN @ BAL30–24TEN
2018 · W6BAL @ TEN21–0BAL
2017 · W9BAL @ TEN20–23TEN
2014 · W10TEN @ BAL7–21BAL
2011 · W2BAL @ TEN13–26TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–BAL
TENQ1 15:00520Punt0–0
BALQ1 11:42744Turnover0–0
TENQ1 7:49829Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 3:36620Turnover on downs13–0
TENQ2 14:53145Touchdown14–0
BALQ2 14:4532Punt14–0
TENQ2 13:3359Punt14–0
BALQ2 11:131159Field goal14–3
TENQ2 5:52536Punt14–3
BALQ2 2:321391Field goal14–6
BALQ3 15:001368Turnover on downs14–6
TENQ3 9:55681Touchdown21–6
BALQ3 6:541-5Turnover21–6
TENQ3 6:44620Touchdown28–6
BALQ3 4:16939Turnover28–6
TENQ3 1:45429Punt28–6
BALQ4 14:491083Touchdown28–12
TENQ4 11:04828Punt28–12
BALQ4 6:251069Turnover on downs28–12
TENQ4 4:2735Punt28–12
BALQ4 2:45960Turnover on downs28–12
TENQ4 0:4900End of half28–12

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill7/148820
Derrick Henry1/1310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry301956.50
Ryan Tannehill6132.21
A.J. Brown199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kalif Raymond11451
MyCole Pruitt11150
Jonnu Smith23121
A.J. Brown1390
Derrick Henry2270
Corey Davis1231
Darius Jennings0100
Tajae Sharpe0200

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson31/5936512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson201437.20
Mark Ingram6223.70
Gus Edwards3206.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown7111260
Willie Snead68560
Hayden Hurst46531
Mark Andrews47390
Seth Roberts24300
Justice Hill45260
Miles Boykin37260
Mark Ingram1290
Nick Boyle0200
Chris Moore0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

3.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.6%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.50
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+4.72