Closing spread
BAL -3.5
Total
53
Model margin
-0.7est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.109EPA / play+0.189
- 45.2%Success rate50.8%
- +0.125EPA / dropback+0.297
- +0.093EPA / rush+0.070
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.3%
- -0.32CPOE+2.16
- 49.8%Third-down rate47.4%
- 71.9%Red-zone TD rate76.8%
- 2.64Points / drive2.85
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–9 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35 points. TEN are 8-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 17/24 | 179 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 16 | 136 | 8.5 | 1 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 9 | 43 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Gus Edwards | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquise Brown | 7 | 9 | 109 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Miles Boykin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 1 | 1 | -6 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 18/26 | 165 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 18 | 40 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Darrynton Evans | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 6 | 10 | 83 | 1 |
| Anthony Firkser | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Cameron Batson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 1 | -10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.71