2020 · WC

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

20·13

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

BAL -3.5

Total

53

Model margin

-0.7est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapTitans
  • +0.109EPA / play+0.189
  • 45.2%Success rate50.8%
  • +0.125EPA / dropback+0.297
  • +0.093EPA / rush+0.070
  • 10.3%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -0.32CPOE+2.16
  • 49.8%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 71.9%Red-zone TD rate76.8%
  • 2.64Points / drive2.85
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–9 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. TEN are 9-12-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4TEN @ BAL18–24BAL
2023 · W6BAL @ TEN24–16BAL
2020 · W11TEN @ BAL30–24TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ BAL28–12TEN
2018 · W6BAL @ TEN21–0BAL
2017 · W9BAL @ TEN20–23TEN
2014 · W10TEN @ BAL7–21BAL
2011 · W2BAL @ TEN13–26TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–TEN
TENQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:3035Punt0–0
TENQ1 11:501075Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 5:39311Turnover0–7
TENQ1 4:20645Field goal0–10
BALQ1 1:381160Field goal3–10
TENQ2 9:595-1Punt3–10
BALQ2 6:35782Touchdown10–10
TENQ2 2:323-6Punt10–10
BALQ2 1:44613End of half10–10
BALQ3 15:001077Touchdown17–10
TENQ3 9:01620Punt17–10
BALQ3 5:0935Punt17–10
TENQ3 3:11636Field goal17–13
BALQ4 14:56641Missed field goal17–13
TENQ4 12:11518Punt17–13
BALQ4 10:00962Field goal20–13
TENQ4 4:19616Turnover20–13
BALQ4 1:50547End of half20–13

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson17/2417901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson161368.51
J.K. Dobbins9434.81
Gus Edwards8384.80
Marquise Brown2199.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marquise Brown791090
Mark Andrews46410
Patrick Ricard34260
Willie Snead2290
Dez Bryant0100
Miles Boykin0100
J.K. Dobbins11-60

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill18/2616511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry18402.20
Ryan Tannehill263.00
Jeremy McNichols144.00
Darrynton Evans111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown610831
Anthony Firkser22440
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine22170
Derrick Henry33110
Jonnu Smith2390
Cameron Batson1160
Geoff Swaim1150
Kalif Raymond0100
Corey Davis0200
Ryan Tannehill11-100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.1%

Expected total

47.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.71