Closing spread
BAL -5.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
-1.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.069EPA / play-0.023
- 47.3%Success rate40.9%
- +0.111EPA / dropback+0.014
- +0.009EPA / rush-0.078
- 9.8%Explosive rate9.0%
- +2.73CPOE+0.48
- 42.3%Third-down rate34.1%
- 64.0%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
- 2.25Points / drive1.57
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–9 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35 points. TEN are 8-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 21/30 | 223 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 13 | 62 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 16 | 41 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 4 | 6 | 69 | 0 |
| Zay Flowers | 6 | 8 | 50 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Justice Hill | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 8/16 | 76 | 0 | 1 |
| Malik Willis | 4/5 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 12 | 97 | 8.1 | 1 |
| Malik Willis | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Tyjae Spears | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyjae Spears | 1 | 1 | 48 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Kyle Philips | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.1%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.61
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.58
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.48