2023 · Week 6

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

24·16

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Tottenham Stadium · outdoors

Closing spread

BAL -5.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

-1.5est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapTitans
  • +0.069EPA / play-0.023
  • 47.3%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.111EPA / dropback+0.014
  • +0.009EPA / rush-0.078
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +2.73CPOE+0.48
  • 42.3%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 64.0%Red-zone TD rate49.4%
  • 2.25Points / drive1.57
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–9 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. TEN are 9-12-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4TEN @ BAL18–24BAL
2020 · playoffsBAL @ TEN20–13BAL
2020 · W11TEN @ BAL30–24TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ BAL28–12TEN
2018 · W6BAL @ TEN21–0BAL
2017 · W9BAL @ TEN20–23TEN
2014 · W10TEN @ BAL7–21BAL
2011 · W2BAL @ TEN13–26TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–TEN
BALQ1 15:00750Field goal3–0
TENQ1 10:261038Field goal3–3
BALQ1 5:34976Field goal6–3
TENQ1 0:0449Punt6–3
BALQ2 13:40512Field goal9–3
TENQ2 10:1337Punt9–3
BALQ2 8:391167Touchdown15–3
TENQ2 3:28412Punt15–3
BALQ2 1:47837Punt18–3
BALQ2 0:0100Field goal18–3
TENQ3 15:0031Punt18–3
BALQ3 12:513-1Punt18–3
TENQ3 11:55768Field goal18–6
BALQ3 9:2421Turnover18–6
TENQ3 8:37215Touchdown18–13
BALQ3 8:243-1Punt18–13
TENQ3 6:49421Turnover18–13
BALQ3 4:271254Field goal21–13
TENQ4 12:49516Punt21–13
BALQ4 8:551066Field goal24–13
TENQ4 4:161346Field goal24–16
BALQ4 0:3800End of half24–16

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson21/3022311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Jackson13624.80
Gus Edwards16412.60
Justice Hill8354.40
Zay Flowers111.00
Mark Andrews100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews46690
Zay Flowers68501
Nelson Agholor23400
Odell Beckham Jr.24340
Rashod Bateman23150
Gus Edwards11120
Patrick Ricard1130
Justice Hill3300

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill8/167601
Malik Willis4/57400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry12978.11
Malik Willis3175.70
Tyjae Spears4153.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyjae Spears11480
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine34250
DeAndre Hopkins15200
Chig Okonkwo24180
Derrick Henry22160
Josh Whyle11110
Chris Moore1160
Kyle Philips1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.1%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.61
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.58
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.48