Closing spread
BAL -6
Total
50.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Ravens
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.189EPA / play+0.109
- 50.8%Success rate45.2%
- +0.297EPA / dropback+0.125
- +0.070EPA / rush+0.093
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.3%
- +2.16CPOE-0.32
- 47.4%Third-down rate49.8%
- 76.8%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
- 2.85Points / drive2.64
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–9 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35 points. BAL are 12-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 22/31 | 259 | 2 | 1 |
| Logan Woodside | 1/1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 28 | 133 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 35 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Cameron Batson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 5 | 7 | 113 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 4 | 7 | 62 | 1 |
| Anthony Firkser | 4 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Cameron Batson | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 4 | 6 | 20 | 1 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 17/29 | 186 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 13 | 51 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Gus Edwards | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Andrews | 5 | 7 | 96 | 1 |
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 3 | 7 | 23 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| James Proche | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Patrick Ricard | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Marquise Brown | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.88