2020 · Week 11

Final / OT

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

30·24

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BAL -6

Total

50.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapRavens
  • +0.189EPA / play+0.109
  • 50.8%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.297EPA / dropback+0.125
  • +0.070EPA / rush+0.093
  • 10.3%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +2.16CPOE-0.32
  • 47.4%Third-down rate49.8%
  • 76.8%Red-zone TD rate71.9%
  • 2.85Points / drive2.64
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–9 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. BAL are 12-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4TEN @ BAL18–24BAL
2023 · W6BAL @ TEN24–16BAL
2020 · playoffsBAL @ TEN20–13BAL
2019 · playoffsTEN @ BAL28–12TEN
2018 · W6BAL @ TEN21–0BAL
2017 · W9BAL @ TEN20–23TEN
2014 · W10TEN @ BAL7–21BAL
2011 · W2BAL @ TEN13–26TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–BAL
BALQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:531040Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 8:371248Field goal7–3
TENQ1 1:50522Turnover7–3
BALQ2 14:08613Field goal7–6
TENQ2 11:0533Punt7–6
BALQ2 9:25965Touchdown7–14
TENQ2 5:171438Field goal10–14
BALQ2 0:4824End of half10–14
TENQ3 15:0034Punt10–14
BALQ3 13:26854Touchdown10–21
TENQ3 9:34773Field goal13–21
BALQ3 5:33727Turnover13–21
TENQ3 1:461181Field goal16–21
BALQ4 11:12620Punt16–21
TENQ4 7:431090Touchdown24–21
BALQ4 2:18870Field goal24–24
TENQ4 0:1500End of half24–24
BALOT32Punt24–24
TENOT673Touchdown30–24

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill22/3125921
Logan Woodside1/1700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry281334.81
Ryan Tannehill4358.80
Cameron Batson144.00
D'Onta Foreman111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Davis571130
A.J. Brown47621
Anthony Firkser45330
Cameron Batson22210
Jonnu Smith46201
Geoff Swaim1190
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine1170
Jeremy McNichols1120
Derrick Henry12-10

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson17/2918611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.K. Dobbins15704.71
Lamar Jackson13513.90
Gus Edwards362.00
Mark Ingram221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mark Andrews57961
Dez Bryant45280
Willie Snead37230
J.K. Dobbins22150
James Proche11140
Patrick Ricard1150
Devin Duvernay1250
Marquise Brown0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

47.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.88