Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
41
Model margin
+0.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.052EPA / play-0.069
- 42.5%Success rate42.6%
- -0.054EPA / dropback-0.057
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.086
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.7%
- -1.33CPOE+0.43
- 35.3%Third-down rate36.0%
- 63.2%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.79Points / drive1.73
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–9 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35 points. TEN are 8-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 34/52 | 261 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 8 | 9 | 98 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 7 | 8 | 44 | 1 |
| Benjamin Watson | 7 | 10 | 41 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 3 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 7 | 19 | 1 |
| Chris Moore | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 19/28 | 218 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 5 | 5 | 71 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 4 | 7 | 70 | 1 |
| Corey Davis | 2 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 3 | 4 | 21 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.6%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.86
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+0.20