2017 · Week 9

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

20·23

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

41

Model margin

+0.2est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapTitans
  • -0.052EPA / play-0.069
  • 42.5%Success rate42.6%
  • -0.054EPA / dropback-0.057
  • -0.050EPA / rush-0.086
  • 7.2%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -1.33CPOE+0.43
  • 35.3%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 63.2%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 1.79Points / drive1.73
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–9 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. TEN are 9-12-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4TEN @ BAL18–24BAL
2023 · W6BAL @ TEN24–16BAL
2020 · playoffsBAL @ TEN20–13BAL
2020 · W11TEN @ BAL30–24TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ BAL28–12TEN
2018 · W6BAL @ TEN21–0BAL
2014 · W10TEN @ BAL7–21BAL
2011 · W2BAL @ TEN13–26TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–TEN
TENQ1 15:00645Field goal0–3
BALQ1 10:581149Field goal3–3
TENQ1 5:59412Punt3–3
BALQ1 3:53310Turnover3–3
TENQ1 2:25346Touchdown3–10
BALQ1 1:041244Field goal6–10
TENQ2 9:56519Punt6–10
BALQ2 7:4037Punt6–10
TENQ2 5:34720Touchdown6–16
BALQ2 2:24622Punt6–16
TENQ2 0:4722End of half6–16
BALQ3 15:00210Turnover6–16
TENQ3 14:2931Punt6–16
BALQ3 13:0836Punt6–16
TENQ3 11:3036Punt6–16
BALQ3 9:59634Punt6–16
TENQ3 6:5939Punt6–16
BALQ3 4:43942Turnover on downs6–16
TENQ4 14:55523Turnover6–16
BALQ4 11:51642Touchdown13–16
TENQ4 8:56975Touchdown13–23
BALQ4 3:581675Touchdown20–23
TENQ4 0:4600End of half20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco34/5226122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Collins13433.30
Javorius Allen7213.00
Joe Flacco177.00
Bobby Rainey122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin89980
Javorius Allen78441
Benjamin Watson710410
Maxx Williams33290
Breshad Perriman37280
Mike Wallace47191
Chris Moore14160
Alex Collins1130
Bobby Rainey13-10

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota19/2821821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry8263.31
DeMarco Murray9192.10
Marcus Mariota362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker55710
Rishard Matthews47701
Corey Davis25280
DeMarco Murray22220
Eric Decker34211
Derrick Henry22100
Jonnu Smith0100
Taywan Taylor12-40

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.6%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.86
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+0.20