2014 · Week 10

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Zach Mettenberger

7·21

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 57°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

BAL -10.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+7.3est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapRavens
  • -0.122EPA / play+0.069
  • 39.5%Success rate44.2%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback+0.149
  • -0.190EPA / rush-0.046
  • 8.4%Explosive rate10.6%
  • -2.82CPOE-0.77
  • 29.7%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 50.7%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.18Points / drive2.21
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–9 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. BAL are 12-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4TEN @ BAL18–24BAL
2023 · W6BAL @ TEN24–16BAL
2020 · playoffsBAL @ TEN20–13BAL
2020 · W11TEN @ BAL30–24TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ BAL28–12TEN
2018 · W6BAL @ TEN21–0BAL
2017 · W9BAL @ TEN20–23TEN
2011 · W2BAL @ TEN13–26TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–BAL
TENQ1 15:001584Turnover0–0
BALQ1 6:4838Punt0–0
TENQ1 4:58958Touchdown7–0
BALQ1 0:20637Punt7–0
TENQ2 13:094-1Punt7–0
BALQ2 10:39846Touchdown7–7
TENQ2 6:433-1Punt7–7
BALQ2 5:0633Punt7–7
TENQ2 3:3933Punt7–7
BALQ2 2:0430Punt7–7
TENQ2 1:35422Punt7–7
BALQ2 0:431-8End of half7–7
BALQ3 15:00413Punt7–7
TENQ3 13:0134Punt7–7
BALQ3 11:281172Touchdown7–14
TENQ3 5:3635Punt7–14
BALQ3 3:5132Punt7–14
TENQ3 2:443-2Punt7–14
BALQ3 0:24653Touchdown7–21
TENQ4 13:093-1Punt7–21
BALQ4 11:171050Punt7–21
TENQ4 4:45539Turnover7–21
BALQ4 2:26238End of half7–21

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Zach Mettenberger16/2717911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bishop Sankey16553.40
Shonn Greene482.00
Leon Washington133.00
Kendall Wright111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendall Wright47530
Delanie Walker35370
Nate Washington23300
Bishop Sankey33190
Justin Hunter12170
Leon Washington23121
Jackie Battle11110
Chase Coffman0300

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco16/2716910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett201125.62
Bernard Pierce8313.90
Lorenzo Taliaferro3103.30
Joe Flacco3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Torrey Smith58751
Owen Daniels24200
Marlon Brown22180
Steve Smith37170
Kamar Aiken11130
Justin Forsett0100
Crockett Gillmore0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.55.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.65%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.2%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.77
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.64
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+7.34