Closing spread
BAL -10.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+7.3est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Ravens
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.122EPA / play+0.069
- 39.5%Success rate44.2%
- -0.086EPA / dropback+0.149
- -0.190EPA / rush-0.046
- 8.4%Explosive rate10.6%
- -2.82CPOE-0.77
- 29.7%Third-down rate41.5%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.18Points / drive2.21
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–9 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35 points. BAL are 12-8-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Mettenberger | 16/27 | 179 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishop Sankey | 16 | 55 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 4 | 7 | 53 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Jackie Battle | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Chase Coffman | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 16/27 | 169 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 20 | 112 | 5.6 | 2 |
| Bernard Pierce | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Lorenzo Taliaferro | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrey Smith | 5 | 8 | 75 | 1 |
| Owen Daniels | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Marlon Brown | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 3 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| Kamar Aiken | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Crockett Gillmore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.65%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.2%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.77
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.64
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+7.34