2026 · Week 4

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Cam Ward

18·24

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Lamar Jackson

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BAL -11.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+7.3est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapRavens
  • -0.124EPA / play+0.071
  • 40.2%Success rate46.2%
  • -0.123EPA / dropback+0.186
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.080
  • 6.3%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -0.37CPOE+4.76
  • 34.7%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 47.4%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
  • 1.42Points / drive2.06
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–9 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. BAL are 12-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W6BAL @ TEN24–16BAL
2020 · playoffsBAL @ TEN20–13BAL
2020 · W11TEN @ BAL30–24TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ BAL28–12TEN
2018 · W6BAL @ TEN21–0BAL
2017 · W9BAL @ TEN20–23TEN
2014 · W10TEN @ BAL7–21BAL
2011 · W2BAL @ TEN13–26TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–BAL
TENQ1 15:00215Turnover0–0
BALQ1 14:08537Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 12:091165Touchdown7–7
BALQ1 5:56510Punt7–7
TENQ1 2:25410Punt7–7
BALQ1 0:07681Touchdown7–14
TENQ2 12:161038Turnover on downs7–14
BALQ2 8:16899Touchdown7–21
TENQ2 3:32620Punt7–21
BALQ2 1:33422Punt7–21
TENQ2 0:53233Turnover7–21
BALQ2 0:35519Field goal7–24
BALQ3 15:00312Punt7–24
TENQ3 12:421137Field goal10–24
BALQ3 6:52517Punt10–24
TENQ3 3:3430Punt10–24
BALQ3 1:5949Punt10–24
TENQ3 0:0437Punt10–24
BALQ4 14:01632Punt10–24
TENQ4 10:1632Punt10–24
BALQ4 9:391148Missed field goal10–24
TENQ4 3:19770Touchdown18–24
BALQ4 1:1200End of half18–24

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Ward20/3122211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard16483.01
Cam Ward4276.80
Tyjae Spears273.50
Nicholas Singleton320.70
Wan'Dale Robinson111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Carnell Tate9121450
Elic Ayomanor11220
Wan'Dale Robinson35191
Chimere Dike11150
Calvin Ridley12130
Gunnar Helm1150
Tony Pollard2420
Daniel Bellinger1120
Tyjae Spears11-10

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Lamar Jackson15/2022220
Tyler Huntley8/96300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry23733.21
Lamar Jackson22010.00
Tyler Huntley4164.00
Justice Hill133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Flowers8101181
Rashod Bateman22460
Matthew Hibner22340
Mark Andrews56271
Justice Hill23220
Devontez Walker12190
Elijah Sarratt12130
Derrick Henry2260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +11.55.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.2%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.19
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.93
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.33