Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
+20.2est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Titansedge mapRavens
- -0.141EPA / play+0.209
- 44.0%Success rate46.9%
- -0.152EPA / dropback+0.316
- -0.096EPA / rush+0.101
- 4.0%Explosive rate10.9%
- +0.39CPOE+4.80
- 33.3%Third-down rate37.5%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate83.3%
- 0.99Points / drive3.13
- 0.0%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–9 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35 points. BAL are 12-8-1 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+17.99
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+20.21