2018 · Week 6

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

21·0

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

BAL -2.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.0est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapTitans
  • +0.035EPA / play-0.029
  • 45.8%Success rate42.6%
  • +0.061EPA / dropback+0.023
  • +0.003EPA / rush-0.094
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -3.77CPOE+1.50
  • 45.4%Third-down rate40.0%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
  • 2.01Points / drive1.83
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 13–9 since 1999

BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 35.3 points. TEN are 9-12-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4TEN @ BAL18–24BAL
2023 · W6BAL @ TEN24–16BAL
2020 · playoffsBAL @ TEN20–13BAL
2020 · W11TEN @ BAL30–24TEN
2019 · playoffsTEN @ BAL28–12TEN
2017 · W9BAL @ TEN20–23TEN
2014 · W10TEN @ BAL7–21BAL
2011 · W2BAL @ TEN13–26TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–TEN
TENQ1 15:00820Punt0–0
BALQ1 10:361889Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 1:2740Punt7–0
BALQ2 14:49752Touchdown14–0
TENQ2 11:56943Punt14–0
BALQ2 7:0634Punt14–0
TENQ2 5:413-8Punt14–0
BALQ2 4:12833Turnover14–0
TENQ2 0:57414Punt14–0
BALQ2 0:17314End of half14–0
BALQ3 15:001393Touchdown21–0
TENQ3 7:403-3Punt21–0
BALQ3 5:4733Punt21–0
TENQ3 4:51746Punt21–0
BALQ3 0:44521Punt21–0
TENQ4 13:443-1Punt21–0
BALQ4 12:411142Punt21–0
TENQ4 5:353-5Punt21–0
BALQ4 3:13411End of half21–0

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco25/3723811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alex Collins19542.82
Gus Edwards10424.20
Lamar Jackson12222.00
Joe Flacco341.30
Javorius Allen111.00
Hayden Hurst100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Crabtree69931
Willie Snead710600
John Brown23280
Mark Andrews24200
Javorius Allen33180
Chris Moore33120
Nick Boyle2470
Hayden Hurst0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota10/1511700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcus Mariota22512.50
Derrick Henry7213.00
Dion Lewis591.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tajae Sharpe22330
Anthony Firkser22250
Corey Davis14240
Taywan Taylor12130
Jonnu Smith11120
Dion Lewis2250
Derrick Henry1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.09%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.7%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.96