Closing spread
BAL -2.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.0est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.029
- 45.8%Success rate42.6%
- +0.061EPA / dropback+0.023
- +0.003EPA / rush-0.094
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.3%
- -3.77CPOE+1.50
- 45.4%Third-down rate40.0%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 2.01Points / drive1.83
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 12–9 since 1999
BAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 35 points. TEN are 8-12-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 25/37 | 238 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 19 | 54 | 2.8 | 2 |
| Gus Edwards | 10 | 42 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Lamar Jackson | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 6 | 9 | 93 | 1 |
| Willie Snead | 7 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| John Brown | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Javorius Allen | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Nick Boyle | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 10/15 | 117 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tajae Sharpe | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 1 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Taywan Taylor | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.7%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.78
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.96