1999 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Shane Matthews

24·22

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Randall Cunningham

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

MIN -13

Total

43.5

Model margin

+0.7est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

1.4%est.

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapVikings
  • -0.102EPA / play+0.042
  • 38.6%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.043EPA / dropback+0.128
  • -0.228EPA / rush-0.092
  • 7.4%Explosive rate10.9%
  • 37.0%Third-down rate44.4%
  • 44.0%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 1.03Points / drive1.72
  • 3.1%Turnover rate3.4%
  • -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.008

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–MIN
CHIQ1 15:00940Punt0–0
MINQ1 11:1732Punt0–0
CHIQ1 10:2536Punt6–0
MINQ1 9:181-20Opp touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 9:1000Opp touchdown7–0
MINQ1 9:101275Field goal7–3
CHIQ1 3:0430Punt7–3
MINQ1 1:56536Field goal7–6
CHIQ2 14:52740Missed field goal7–6
MINQ2 10:4549Punt7–6
CHIQ2 8:5239Punt7–6
MINQ2 7:48433Field goal7–9
CHIQ2 6:20935Missed field goal7–9
MINQ2 3:1210Turnover7–9
CHIQ2 3:06558Touchdown14–9
MINQ2 1:13762Field goal14–12
MINQ3 15:00422Turnover14–12
CHIQ3 12:50963Touchdown21–12
MINQ3 7:471162Field goal21–15
CHIQ3 2:311158Field goal24–15
MINQ4 12:21455Turnover24–15
CHIQ4 10:1439Punt24–15
MINQ4 8:293-7Punt24–15
CHIQ4 7:41544Missed field goal24–15
MINQ4 4:50944Turnover24–15
CHIQ4 3:08917Turnover on downs24–15
MINQ4 0:43472Touchdown24–22
CHIQ4 0:0200End of half24–22

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shane Matthews19/2818420
Cade McNown9/149700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Curtis Enis27662.40
Cade McNown2178.50
Edgar Bennett11515.00
Shane Matthews166.00
James Allen111.00
Glyn Milburn1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marcus Robinson811901
Curtis Conway59601
Curtis Enis34320
Ryan Wetnight23260
Bobby Engram35170
John Allred22160
Glyn Milburn23150
Alonzo Mayes11120
Edgar Bennett1270
Macey Brooks1260

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Randall Cunningham25/4630913

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Robert Smith121078.90
Randall Cunningham34214.00
Leroy Hoard5173.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randy Moss8111220
Cris Carter512620
Andrew Glover58480
Leroy Hoard11290
Jake Reed14230
Matt Hatchette12220
Chris Walsh11181
Robert Smith12-20
Jimmy Kleinsasser23-130

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.9%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.50
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.40
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.67