Closing spread
MIN -13
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.102EPA / play+0.042
- 38.6%Success rate44.6%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.128
- -0.228EPA / rush-0.092
- 7.4%Explosive rate10.9%
- 37.0%Third-down rate44.4%
- 44.0%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.03Points / drive1.72
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.008
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. MIN are 23-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 19/28 | 184 | 2 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 9/14 | 97 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Enis | 27 | 66 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Edgar Bennett | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| James Allen | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Robinson | 8 | 11 | 90 | 1 |
| Curtis Conway | 5 | 9 | 60 | 1 |
| Curtis Enis | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Ryan Wetnight | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| John Allred | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Alonzo Mayes | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Edgar Bennett | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Macey Brooks | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cunningham | 25/46 | 309 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Smith | 12 | 107 | 8.9 | 0 |
| Randall Cunningham | 3 | 42 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Leroy Hoard | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 8 | 11 | 122 | 0 |
| Cris Carter | 5 | 12 | 62 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 5 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Leroy Hoard | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 1 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Chris Walsh | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1 |
| Robert Smith | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 3 | -13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.9%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.50
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-4.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.67