Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play-0.072
- 46.3%Success rate40.1%
- +0.135EPA / dropback-0.036
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.142
- 9.6%Explosive rate5.9%
- +4.00CPOE-0.22
- 39.7%Third-down rate33.1%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 2.09Points / drive1.65
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. CHI are 30-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 22/34 | 330 | 2 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 1/1 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 22 | 106 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Cam Akers | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Sam Darnold | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Addison | 8 | 9 | 162 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 7 | 9 | 114 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 2 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 32/47 | 340 | 2 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 13 | 30 | 2.3 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 7 | 7 | 106 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 9 | 15 | 86 | 1 |
| Cole Kmet | 7 | 10 | 64 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze | 5 | 10 | 39 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.9%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.88
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.18