2024 · Week 12 · Division

Final / OT

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Darnold

30·27

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

MIN -3

Total

39.5

Model margin

-1.2est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBears
  • +0.038EPA / play-0.072
  • 46.3%Success rate40.1%
  • +0.135EPA / dropback-0.036
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.142
  • 9.6%Explosive rate5.9%
  • +4.00CPOE-0.22
  • 39.7%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 2.09Points / drive1.65
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN
2022 · W5CHI @ MIN22–29MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00415Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:15772Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 9:47825Punt0–0
MINQ1 5:3630Punt0–0
CHIQ1 5:10779Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 0:53462Touchdown7–7
CHIQ2 14:54940Missed field goal7–7
MINQ2 9:26718Touchdown14–7
CHIQ2 6:2931Punt14–7
MINQ2 4:5039Punt14–7
CHIQ2 3:09954Field goal14–10
MINQ3 15:00455Field goal17–10
CHIQ3 12:40543Turnover on downs17–10
MINQ3 10:0730Punt17–10
CHIQ3 8:5837Punt17–10
MINQ3 8:00826Punt17–10
MINQ3 4:09515Touchdown24–10
CHIQ3 1:2234Punt24–10
MINQ4 15:00639Turnover on downs24–10
CHIQ4 12:071064Touchdown24–16
MINQ4 7:221173Field goal27–16
CHIQ4 1:56840Touchdown27–24
MINQ4 0:2200Field goal27–24
CHIQ4 0:21127Field goal27–27
CHIOT3-1Punt27–27
MINOT1083Field goal30–27

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold22/3433020
Nick Mullens1/11400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones221064.81
Cam Akers3196.30
Sam Darnold2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Addison891621
T.J. Hockenson791140
Justin Jefferson25270
Aaron Jones34230
Johnny Mundt1170
Cam Akers1160
Jalen Nailor1251

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams32/4734020
DJ Moore0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Caleb Williams6335.50
D'Andre Swift13302.30
DJ Moore11313.00
Roschon Johnson221.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore771061
Keenan Allen915861
Cole Kmet710640
Rome Odunze510390
D'Andre Swift34350
Roschon Johnson11100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.9%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.18