2022 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

29·13

Bears

Chicago

QB Nathan Peterman

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 32°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

MIN -6.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBears
  • +0.004EPA / play-0.039
  • 45.8%Success rate41.1%
  • +0.070EPA / dropback-0.070
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.004
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +1.66CPOE-4.05
  • 40.7%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 65.2%Red-zone TD rate60.7%
  • 2.04Points / drive1.78
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W5CHI @ MIN22–29MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:29473Touchdown6–0
CHIQ1 10:12532Punt6–0
MINQ1 7:07759Turnover6–0
CHIQ1 4:12837Turnover on downs6–0
MINQ1 0:491266Touchdown13–0
CHIQ2 9:2033Turnover13–0
MINQ2 8:19530Field goal16–0
CHIQ2 4:57375Touchdown16–6
MINQ2 3:311069End of half16–6
MINQ3 15:001175Touchdown23–6
CHIQ3 9:251075Touchdown23–13
MINQ3 4:07733Field goal26–13
CHIQ4 14:55518Punt26–13
MINQ4 11:32428Turnover26–13
CHIQ4 9:18712Turnover on downs26–13
MINQ4 7:14841Field goal29–13
CHIQ4 3:3940Turnover29–13
MINQ4 3:1338Punt29–13
CHIQ4 0:4700End of half29–13

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins17/2022510
Nick Mullens11/1311601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alexander Mattison10545.42
Dalvin Cook11373.40
Ty Chandler6203.30
Kene Nwangwu5132.60
Nick Mullens482.00
Jalen Reagor155.00
Adam Thielen144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
K.J. Osborn561170
Jalen Nailor45620
Justin Jefferson45380
Jalen Reagor22170
T.J. Hockenson11160
Kene Nwangwu11160
Irv Smith33140
Adam Thielen2381
Alexander Mattison1160
Dalvin Cook1100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nathan Peterman11/1911410
Tim Boyle2/83302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Khalil Herbert10505.00
Velus Jones Jr.14242.01
David Montgomery7213.00
Nathan Peterman273.50
Tim Boyle2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Kmet45571
Chase Claypool26290
Velus Jones Jr.12280
Dante Pettis26190
N'Keal Harry1270
Byron Pringle1150
Equanimeous St. Brown1130
Trestan Ebner0200
Khalil Herbert12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.3%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.66
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.19