Closing spread
MIN -6.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play-0.039
- 45.8%Success rate41.1%
- +0.070EPA / dropback-0.070
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.004
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.4%
- +1.66CPOE-4.05
- 40.7%Third-down rate41.0%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate60.7%
- 2.04Points / drive1.78
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. CHI are 30-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 17/20 | 225 | 1 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 11/13 | 116 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 10 | 54 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Dalvin Cook | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.J. Osborn | 5 | 6 | 117 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 4 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Peterman | 11/19 | 114 | 1 | 0 |
| Tim Boyle | 2/8 | 33 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Herbert | 10 | 50 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 1 | 42 | 42.0 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Nathan Peterman | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tim Boyle | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Kmet | 4 | 5 | 57 | 1 |
| Chase Claypool | 2 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 2 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| N'Keal Harry | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Byron Pringle | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Trestan Ebner | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.17
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.66
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.19