Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
-1.5est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.025EPA / play-0.052
- 43.2%Success rate41.6%
- +0.039EPA / dropback-0.057
- -0.158EPA / rush-0.045
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.6%
- +2.80CPOE+0.01
- 37.5%Third-down rate41.7%
- 56.4%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.84Points / drive1.72
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. CHI are 30-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 21/31 | 181 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 18 | 44 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 6 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 4 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 4 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 3 | 5 | 28 | 1 |
| Brandon Powell | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Bagent | 10/14 | 83 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Fields | 6/10 | 58 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 15 | 65 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Darrynton Evans | 9 | 32 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Tyson Bagent | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 5 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 3 | 48 | 0 |
| Tyler Scott | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Darrynton Evans | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.0%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-4.74
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-1.53