2023 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

19·13

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 53°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

MIN -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

-1.5est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBears
  • -0.025EPA / play-0.052
  • 43.2%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.039EPA / dropback-0.057
  • -0.158EPA / rush-0.045
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +2.80CPOE+0.01
  • 37.5%Third-down rate41.7%
  • 56.4%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 1.84Points / drive1.72
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN
2022 · W5CHI @ MIN22–29MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CHI
CHIQ1 15:0063Punt0–0
MINQ1 11:11828Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 6:241375Field goal3–3
MINQ2 13:41842Field goal6–3
CHIQ2 8:5634Punt6–3
MINQ2 7:42512Punt6–3
CHIQ2 6:06445Field goal6–6
MINQ2 3:1838Turnover6–6
CHIQ2 2:4838Turnover6–6
MINQ2 1:47972Touchdown12–6
CHIQ2 0:1200End of half12–6
MINQ3 15:0035Punt12–6
CHIQ3 13:36515Punt12–6
MINQ3 9:4936Punt12–6
CHIQ3 8:0731Opp touchdown19–6
CHIQ3 6:4479Turnover on downs19–6
MINQ3 4:21626Missed field goal19–6
CHIQ3 0:133-2Punt19–6
MINQ4 14:1132Punt19–6
CHIQ4 12:42977Touchdown19–13
MINQ4 7:46313Punt19–13
CHIQ4 6:44941Turnover19–13
MINQ4 1:51512Turnover on downs19–13

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins21/3118110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alexander Mattison18442.40
Cam Akers188.00
Brandon Powell1-1-1.00
Kirk Cousins2-5-2.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Hockenson68500
K.J. Osborn45480
Alexander Mattison47280
Jordan Addison35281
Brandon Powell34200
Cam Akers1170

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyson Bagent10/148301
Justin Fields6/105801

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Onta Foreman15654.30
Justin Fields8465.80
Darrynton Evans9323.60
Velus Jones Jr.2157.50
Tyson Bagent242.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore58510
Darnell Mooney23480
Tyler Scott24120
Robert Tonyan11110
Cole Kmet2390
Velus Jones Jr.1150
D'Onta Foreman1120
Darrynton Evans1120
Trent Taylor0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.0%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-4.74
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-1.53