Closing spread
MIN -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play+0.038
- 40.1%Success rate46.3%
- -0.036EPA / dropback+0.135
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.119
- 5.9%Explosive rate9.6%
- -0.22CPOE+4.00
- 33.1%Third-down rate39.7%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.65Points / drive2.09
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. MIN are 23-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 18/31 | 191 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyson Bagent | 1/1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 6 | 13 | 82 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 8 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze | 2 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Tyler Scott | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 24/40 | 231 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 18 | 86 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Cam Akers | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Ty Chandler | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 7 | 14 | 73 | 1 |
| Jordan Addison | 7 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.88
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.59