2024 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

12·30

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Darnold

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapVikings
  • -0.072EPA / play+0.038
  • 40.1%Success rate46.3%
  • -0.036EPA / dropback+0.135
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.119
  • 5.9%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -0.22CPOE+4.00
  • 33.1%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 1.65Points / drive2.09
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN
2022 · W5CHI @ MIN22–29MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–MIN
CHIQ1 15:0049Turnover on downs0–0
MINQ1 12:5735Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 12:04825Turnover0–3
MINQ1 7:34539Touchdown0–10
CHIQ1 5:04513Punt0–10
MINQ1 2:131678Turnover0–10
CHIQ2 9:351260Turnover on downs0–10
MINQ2 2:351358Field goal0–13
CHIQ2 0:0400End of half0–13
MINQ3 15:0045Punt0–13
CHIQ3 13:47634Punt0–13
MINQ3 11:3937Punt0–13
CHIQ3 10:401062Field goal3–13
MINQ3 7:021472Touchdown3–20
CHIQ3 1:38949Field goal6–20
MINQ4 13:00840Touchdown6–27
CHIQ4 10:143-2Punt6–27
MINQ4 8:06511Punt6–27
CHIQ4 6:13627Touchdown12–27
MINQ4 5:19614Field goal12–30
CHIQ4 1:1238End of half12–30

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams18/3119110
Tyson Bagent1/1500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift19794.20
DJ Moore3248.00
Travis Homer372.30
Caleb Williams430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen613821
DJ Moore88460
Rome Odunze27390
Cole Kmet11140
D'Andre Swift11100
Tyler Scott1150

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Darnold24/4023111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones18864.81
Cam Akers10242.41
Ty Chandler144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson714731
Jordan Addison79630
T.J. Hockenson57520
Aaron Jones23200
Brandon Powell11120
Trent Sherfield1160
Jalen Nailor1150
Johnny Mundt0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

4.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.3%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.59