Closing spread
CHI -4.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+3.1est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.055EPA / play+0.361
- 37.7%Success rate53.3%
- +0.208EPA / dropback+0.551
- -0.125EPA / rush+0.143
- 3.3%Explosive rate12.0%
- -4.89CPOE+16.58
- 57.1%Third-down rate71.4%
- 83.3%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 2.90Points / drive4.19
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. CHI are 30-23-1 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
1.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
49.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.89
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.11