2026 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Carson Wentz

9·3

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CHI -4.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

-0.8est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Bears

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapBears
  • -0.099EPA / play+0.052
  • 37.7%Success rate47.0%
  • -0.024EPA / dropback+0.154
  • -0.206EPA / rush-0.082
  • 8.1%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +0.08CPOE+5.30
  • 37.6%Third-down rate44.6%
  • 52.8%Red-zone TD rate51.9%
  • 1.60Points / drive2.27
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN
2022 · W5CHI @ MIN22–29MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CHI
MINQ1 15:00855Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 11:031047Field goal3–3
MINQ1 5:0338Punt3–3
CHIQ1 2:5743Turnover3–3
MINQ1 1:3537Punt3–3
CHIQ1 0:0332Punt3–3
MINQ2 14:031033Field goal6–3
CHIQ2 8:181451Punt6–3
MINQ2 1:45516Punt6–3
CHIQ2 0:202-10End of half6–3
CHIQ3 15:001164Turnover6–3
MINQ3 9:38530Punt6–3
CHIQ3 6:30621Punt6–3
MINQ3 4:01421Punt6–3
CHIQ3 1:38513Punt6–3
MINQ4 14:49314Punt6–3
CHIQ4 12:581162Missed field goal6–3
MINQ4 6:211162Field goal9–3
CHIQ4 1:09744Turnover on downs9–3

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz11/2014300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones231054.60
DeeJay Dallas284.00
Carson Wentz362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson36550
T.J. Hockenson34290
Josh Oliver11240
Jordan Addison25210
DeeJay Dallas11120
Demond Claiborne1120
Myles Price0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams15/2613801
Tyson Bagent5/95400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyle Monangai10474.70
D'Andre Swift16452.80
Caleb Williams5428.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
D'Andre Swift55540
Rome Odunze34430
Kalif Raymond55400
Luther Burden III37320
Kyle Monangai22110
Sam Roush1390
Colston Loveland1330
Cole Kmet0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.8%4.3%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

1.81%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.8%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.62
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.42
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.83