2023 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

12·10

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Joshua Dobbs

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+0.4est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapVikings
  • -0.052EPA / play-0.025
  • 41.6%Success rate43.2%
  • -0.057EPA / dropback+0.039
  • -0.045EPA / rush-0.158
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +0.01CPOE+2.80
  • 41.7%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
  • 1.72Points / drive1.84
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN
2022 · W5CHI @ MIN22–29MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–MIN
CHIQ1 15:001347Missed field goal0–0
MINQ1 5:533-7Punt0–0
CHIQ1 4:14972Field goal3–0
MINQ2 13:35410Turnover3–0
CHIQ2 11:3131Punt3–0
MINQ2 10:31817Turnover3–0
CHIQ2 7:28412Punt3–0
MINQ2 5:0634Punt3–0
CHIQ2 3:30426Punt3–0
MINQ2 1:51752Field goal3–3
MINQ3 15:00530Turnover on downs3–3
CHIQ3 12:07934Field goal6–3
MINQ3 6:59926Turnover6–3
CHIQ3 2:39732Field goal9–3
MINQ4 14:15411Turnover9–3
CHIQ4 12:32515Turnover9–3
MINQ4 9:46877Touchdown9–10
CHIQ4 5:54517Turnover9–10
MINQ4 3:2830Punt9–10
CHIQ4 2:29665Field goal12–10
MINQ4 0:10122End of half12–10

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields27/3721700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Fields12594.90
Roschon Johnson10353.50
Khalil Herbert6244.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore11131140
Cole Kmet77430
Roschon Johnson55400
Khalil Herbert22140
Darnell Mooney2360
Trent Taylor0100
Robert Tonyan0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joshua Dobbs22/3218514

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alexander Mattison10525.20
Joshua Dobbs2115.50
Ty Chandler482.00
Brandon Powell122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Hockenson56501
Brandon Powell33450
Jordan Addison610390
K.J. Osborn34340
Alexander Mattison22110
Ty Chandler1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.3%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.44