Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+0.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.052EPA / play-0.025
- 41.6%Success rate43.2%
- -0.057EPA / dropback+0.039
- -0.045EPA / rush-0.158
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.4%
- +0.01CPOE+2.80
- 41.7%Third-down rate37.5%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate56.4%
- 1.72Points / drive1.84
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. MIN are 23-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 27/37 | 217 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 12 | 59 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 11 | 13 | 114 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 7 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 5 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 22/32 | 185 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Mattison | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 6 | 50 | 1 |
| Brandon Powell | 3 | 3 | 45 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 6 | 10 | 39 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Ty Chandler | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.26
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.44