2025 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

19·17

Vikings

Minnesota

QB J.J. McCarthy

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -3

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapVikings
  • +0.076EPA / play-0.094
  • 45.7%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.122EPA / dropback-0.115
  • +0.007EPA / rush-0.062
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -3.48CPOE-2.84
  • 42.0%Third-down rate32.4%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 2.32Points / drive1.75
  • 1.0%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN
2022 · W5CHI @ MIN22–29MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–MIN
MINQ1 15:00928Punt0–0
CHIQ1 10:2031Punt0–0
MINQ1 9:2033Punt0–0
CHIQ1 7:5131Punt0–0
MINQ1 6:23747Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 2:10633Punt0–3
MINQ2 14:4836Punt0–3
CHIQ2 13:201574Touchdown7–3
MINQ2 4:55311Turnover7–3
CHIQ2 3:3435Field goal10–3
MINQ2 2:00631Turnover10–3
CHIQ2 0:35314Punt10–3
MINQ2 0:1012End of half10–3
CHIQ3 15:00833Field goal13–3
MINQ3 10:31518Punt13–3
CHIQ3 7:181070Field goal16–3
MINQ3 2:1138Punt16–3
CHIQ3 1:045-2Punt16–3
MINQ4 13:14224Touchdown16–10
CHIQ4 12:33738Missed field goal16–10
MINQ4 8:0832Punt16–10
CHIQ4 7:18944Punt16–10
MINQ4 3:141085Touchdown16–17
CHIQ4 0:5039Field goal19–17

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams16/3219300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift21904.30
Caleb Williams4266.50
Kyle Monangai12231.91
DJ Moore133.00
Travis Homer1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Kmet55450
Rome Odunze26410
Colston Loveland34400
Luther Burden III35270
DJ Moore13180
Kyle Monangai11140
Durham Smythe1380
D'Andre Swift0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
J.J. McCarthy16/3215012

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones16704.40
Jordan Mason6457.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Jefferson59610
T.J. Hockenson36390
Jordan Addison27201
Jalen Nailor11160
Aaron Jones36110
Adam Thielen1260
Josh Oliver11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.23