Closing spread
MIN -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play-0.094
- 45.7%Success rate43.3%
- +0.122EPA / dropback-0.115
- +0.007EPA / rush-0.062
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.4%
- -3.48CPOE-2.84
- 42.0%Third-down rate32.4%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 2.32Points / drive1.75
- 1.0%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. MIN are 23-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 16/32 | 193 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 21 | 90 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Kyle Monangai | 12 | 23 | 1.9 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Kmet | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze | 2 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Colston Loveland | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Luther Burden III | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Kyle Monangai | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 16/32 | 150 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 16 | 70 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 6 | 45 | 7.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson | 5 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 3 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 2 | 7 | 20 | 1 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.53
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.23