Closing spread
MIN -1.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Vikings
- OutElijah WilliamsDTHamstring· DNP
- OutZavier ScottRBAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulHarrison SmithSIllness· Limited
- QuestionableChristian DarrisawTKnee· Full
Bears
- DoubtfulT.J. EdwardsLBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableJaylon JohnsonCBCalf· Limited
- QuestionableJosh BlackwellCBGroin· Limited
- QuestionableKyler GordonCBHamstring
- QuestionableRoschon JohnsonRBFoot· Limited
Win probability
- Bears
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.094EPA / play+0.076
- 43.3%Success rate45.7%
- -0.115EPA / dropback+0.122
- -0.062EPA / rush+0.007
- 8.4%Explosive rate10.1%
- -2.84CPOE-3.48
- 32.4%Third-down rate42.0%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 1.75Points / drive2.32
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CHI are 30-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–CHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 12:45 | 10 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 7:04 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CHI | Q1 4:51 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIN | Q1 0:58 | 7 | 25 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| CHI | Q2 12:48 | 5 | 47 | Turnover on downs | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q2 8:55 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–7 |
| CHI | Q2 6:52 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q2 5:52 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 3–7 |
| CHI | Q2 4:29 | 8 | 40 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| MIN | Q2 0:24 | 1 | 28 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| CHI | Q2 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–10 |
| CHI | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 6–10 |
| MIN | Q3 14:28 | 4 | 2 | Opp touchdown | 6–17 |
| MIN | Q3 12:51 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 6–17 |
| CHI | Q3 10:08 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 6–17 |
| MIN | Q3 7:14 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 6–17 |
| CHI | Q3 5:46 | 11 | 59 | Missed field goal | 6–17 |
| MIN | Q4 14:55 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 12–17 |
| CHI | Q4 12:13 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 12–17 |
| MIN | Q4 10:37 | 4 | 36 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| CHI | Q4 9:46 | 5 | 8 | Punt | 20–17 |
| MIN | Q4 7:24 | 9 | 68 | Touchdown | 27–17 |
| CHI | Q4 2:53 | 7 | 45 | Touchdown | 27–24 |
| MIN | Q4 2:02 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 27–24 |
| CHI | Q4 0:09 | 2 | 19 | Turnover | 27–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 13/20 | 143 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 15 | 68 | 4.5 | 0 |
| J.J. McCarthy | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 1 |
| Aaron Jones | 8 | 23 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 3 | 44 | 1 |
| Justin Jefferson | 4 | 7 | 44 | 1 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 21/35 | 210 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 6 | 58 | 9.7 | 1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 17 | 53 | 3.1 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 3 | 5 | 68 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze | 6 | 9 | 37 | 1 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Colston Loveland | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Kyle Monangai | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Luther Burden III | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.2%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.53
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.18