Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
36
Model margin
+4.3est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
6.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.068EPA / play-0.110
- 39.4%Success rate35.3%
- -0.034EPA / dropback-0.079
- -0.132EPA / rush-0.177
- 7.1%Explosive rate6.6%
- 39.2%Third-down rate29.7%
- 43.1%Red-zone TD rate74.3%
- 1.24Points / drive1.12
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.6%
- +0.041EPA / play allowed+0.100
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akili Smith | 25/41 | 221 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Dillon | 28 | 168 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Michael Basnight | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Akili Smith | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnay Scott | 8 | 12 | 110 | 0 |
| Carl Pickens | 7 | 8 | 38 | 2 |
| Tony McGee | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Damon Griffin | 2 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| Steve Bush | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Corey Dillon | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Couch | 15/27 | 164 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Kirby | 15 | 57 | 3.8 | 1 |
| George Jones | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Phil Dawson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Johnson | 5 | 13 | 73 | 0 |
| Terry Kirby | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Leslie Shepherd | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Mark Campbell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
6.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.68
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+2.47
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.35