Closing spread
CIN -7.5
Total
37
Model margin
+1.9est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.127EPA / play+0.001
- 39.3%Success rate44.4%
- -0.131EPA / dropback+0.050
- -0.121EPA / rush-0.103
- 8.2%Explosive rate7.8%
- -5.66CPOE+2.09
- 32.3%Third-down rate38.3%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 1.56Points / drive1.91
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Driskel | 13/26 | 166 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Strong | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jeff Driskel | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bell | 4 | 4 | 68 | 2 |
| Cedric Tillman | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 2 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| James Proche | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Browning | 18/24 | 156 | 3 | 1 |
| AJ McCarron | 3/4 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 14 | 111 | 7.9 | 1 |
| Chase Brown | 11 | 43 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jake Browning | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Jones | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Jones | 3 | 3 | 49 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 5 | 7 | 36 | 2 |
| Trenton Irwin | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 4 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.47
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.91
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.91