2023 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jeff Driskel

14·31

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jake Browning

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 38°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CIN -7.5

Total

37

Model margin

+1.9est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBengals
  • -0.127EPA / play+0.001
  • 39.3%Success rate44.4%
  • -0.131EPA / dropback+0.050
  • -0.121EPA / rush-0.103
  • 8.2%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -5.66CPOE+2.09
  • 32.3%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.91
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE
2021 · W18CIN @ CLE16–21CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CIN
CLEQ1 15:0036Turnover0–0
CINQ1 13:24422Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 11:523-7Punt0–0
CINQ1 10:10870Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 6:0731Punt0–7
CINQ1 3:51567Touchdown0–14
CLEQ1 0:4830Punt0–14
CINQ2 14:44865Touchdown0–21
CLEQ2 9:19420Punt0–21
CINQ2 6:48610Punt0–21
CLEQ2 3:5324Turnover0–21
CINQ2 3:1437Field goal0–24
CLEQ2 1:55747End of half0–24
CINQ3 15:003-13Punt0–24
CLEQ3 13:2036Punt0–24
CINQ3 11:441489Touchdown0–31
CLEQ3 3:32522Punt0–31
CINQ3 1:3835Punt0–31
CLEQ3 0:18516Punt0–31
CINQ4 12:523-4Punt0–31
CLEQ4 10:53555Touchdown7–31
CINQ4 8:4539Punt7–31
CLEQ4 6:32975Touchdown14–31
CINQ4 2:3431Punt14–31
CLEQ4 0:2900End of half14–31

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff Driskel13/2616622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Strong14654.60
Jeff Driskel7334.70
Jerome Ford362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Bell44682
Cedric Tillman36430
Jerome Ford23260
Jordan Akins36240
Kareem Hunt1150
James Proche0400
Pierre Strong0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Browning18/2415631
AJ McCarron3/42000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon141117.91
Chase Brown11433.90
Jake Browning2189.00
Charlie Jones2136.50
Trayveon Williams1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charlie Jones33490
Andrei Iosivas57362
Trenton Irwin22340
Ja'Marr Chase46190
Tanner Hudson22110
Chase Brown12100
Drew Sample2270
Joe Mixon1261
Tyler Boyd1240

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.91
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.91