2024 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Jameis Winston

6·24

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 33°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CIN -10

Total

46.5

Model margin

+6.7est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

3.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBengals
  • -0.179EPA / play+0.107
  • 37.1%Success rate48.0%
  • -0.196EPA / dropback+0.193
  • -0.140EPA / rush-0.081
  • 5.8%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -4.22CPOE+6.81
  • 28.8%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 56.8%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
  • 1.09Points / drive2.50
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE
2021 · W18CIN @ CLE16–21CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CIN
CLEQ1 15:00576Turnover0–0
CINQ1 12:12894Touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 7:1432Punt0–7
CINQ1 5:36745Missed field goal0–7
CLEQ1 1:173-1Punt0–7
CINQ2 14:4938Punt0–7
CLEQ2 13:143-6Punt0–7
CINQ2 11:34950Touchdown0–14
CLEQ2 7:32515Punt0–14
CINQ2 3:51732Field goal0–17
CINQ3 15:00617Punt0–17
CLEQ3 11:101269Touchdown6–17
CINQ3 5:503-6Punt6–17
CLEQ3 4:141361Turnover6–17
CINQ4 13:3239Punt6–17
CLEQ4 11:20626Turnover6–17
CINQ4 8:20742Turnover6–17
CLEQ4 4:271027Turnover on downs6–17
CINQ4 1:54236Touchdown6–24
CLEQ4 1:4464Turnover on downs6–24
CINQ4 0:2200End of half6–24

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dorian Thompson-Robinson20/3415702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerome Ford11928.41
Dorian Thompson-Robinson9495.40
Pierre Strong263.00
D'Onta Foreman210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Njoku810660
Jerome Ford55390
Elijah Moore25210
Jerry Jeudy23200
Jordan Akins1280
Pierre Strong2230
Mike Woods0300
Jamari Thrash0100

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow23/3025230

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown18915.10
Joe Burrow2199.50
Ja'Marr Chase177.00
Jake Browning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase68971
Tee Higgins811581
Andrei Iosivas33531
Chase Brown33180
Mike Gesicki22140
Drew Sample11120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

3.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.7%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.01
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.72