Closing spread
CIN -10
Total
46.5
Model margin
+6.7est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.179EPA / play+0.107
- 37.1%Success rate48.0%
- -0.196EPA / dropback+0.193
- -0.140EPA / rush-0.081
- 5.8%Explosive rate7.3%
- -4.22CPOE+6.81
- 28.8%Third-down rate47.3%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate69.7%
- 1.09Points / drive2.50
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 20/34 | 157 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford | 11 | 92 | 8.4 | 1 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 9 | 49 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Njoku | 8 | 10 | 66 | 0 |
| Jerome Ford | 5 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 2 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Mike Woods | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamari Thrash | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 23/30 | 252 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 18 | 91 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jake Browning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 6 | 8 | 97 | 1 |
| Tee Higgins | 8 | 11 | 58 | 1 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 3 | 3 | 53 | 1 |
| Chase Brown | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.7%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.01
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.72