2024 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

21·14

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CIN -5.5

Total

42

Model margin

-5.5est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBrowns
  • +0.107EPA / play-0.179
  • 48.0%Success rate37.1%
  • +0.193EPA / dropback-0.196
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.140
  • 7.3%Explosive rate5.8%
  • +6.81CPOE-4.22
  • 47.3%Third-down rate28.8%
  • 69.7%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 2.50Points / drive1.09
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE
2021 · W18CIN @ CLE16–21CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–CLE
CINQ1 15:0000Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 14:4839Punt7–0
CINQ1 13:0936Punt7–0
CLEQ1 11:30932Missed field goal7–0
CINQ1 6:28629Turnover on downs7–0
CLEQ1 3:4230Punt7–0
CINQ1 1:42540Punt7–0
CLEQ2 14:16522Punt7–0
CINQ2 11:5332Punt7–0
CLEQ2 11:01520Punt7–0
CINQ2 7:4447Punt7–0
CLEQ2 5:251461Touchdown7–6
CINQ2 0:5642Punt7–6
CLEQ2 0:3000End of half7–6
CLEQ3 15:00962Turnover on downs7–6
CINQ3 10:49560Touchdown14–6
CLEQ3 7:5639Turnover14–6
CINQ3 6:4433Punt14–6
CLEQ3 5:19514Punt14–6
CINQ3 3:25450Touchdown21–6
CLEQ3 1:3034Punt21–6
CINQ4 15:00613Punt21–6
CLEQ4 11:53837Punt21–6
CINQ4 8:34516Punt21–6
CLEQ4 4:5033Turnover21–6
CINQ4 4:033-2Missed field goal21–6
CLEQ4 3:431265Touchdown21–14
CINQ4 1:2700End of half21–14

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow15/2518120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chase Brown15442.90
Ja'Marr Chase11111.00
Zack Moss671.20
Joe Burrow3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tee Higgins48821
Ja'Marr Chase56551
Zack Moss33330
Chase Brown2290
Mike Gesicki1120
Tanner Hudson0100
Drew Sample0100
Andrei Iosivas0100
Erick All0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson15/1712800
Dorian Thompson-Robinson11/248202
Jameis Winston5/116710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dorian Thompson-Robinson34414.70
Nick Chubb11222.01
Pierre Strong362.00
D'Onta Foreman252.50
Deshaun Watson200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cedric Tillman812810
David Njoku1014761
Jordan Akins44420
Elijah Moore66410
Jerry Jeudy16180
Nick Chubb13100
Pierre Strong1390

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.53.1%3.3%5.0%3.2%7.4%6.3%3.4%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

34.7%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.01
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.18
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-5.48