Closing spread
CIN -5.5
Total
42
Model margin
-5.5est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.107EPA / play-0.179
- 48.0%Success rate37.1%
- +0.193EPA / dropback-0.196
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.140
- 7.3%Explosive rate5.8%
- +6.81CPOE-4.22
- 47.3%Third-down rate28.8%
- 69.7%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 2.50Points / drive1.09
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 15/25 | 181 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Brown | 15 | 44 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Joe Burrow | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 4 | 8 | 82 | 1 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 5 | 6 | 55 | 1 |
| Zack Moss | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Drew Sample | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Erick All | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 15/17 | 128 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 11/24 | 82 | 0 | 2 |
| Jameis Winston | 5/11 | 67 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 3 | 44 | 14.7 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 11 | 22 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Pierre Strong | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Tillman | 8 | 12 | 81 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 10 | 14 | 76 | 1 |
| Jordan Akins | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Elijah Moore | 6 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 1 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Pierre Strong | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
34.7%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.01
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.18
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.48