2022 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Deshaun Watson

10·23

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Joe Burrow

Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 47°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CIN -4.5

Total

47

Model margin

+6.5est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapBengals
  • +0.013EPA / play+0.081
  • 44.1%Success rate47.8%
  • +0.021EPA / dropback+0.153
  • +0.002EPA / rush-0.064
  • 9.8%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +1.05CPOE+2.74
  • 39.0%Third-down rate47.3%
  • 56.3%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
  • 1.91Points / drive2.27
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE
2021 · W18CIN @ CLE16–21CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–CIN
CINQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
CLEQ1 14:05851Turnover on downs0–0
CINQ1 9:50619Punt0–0
CLEQ1 7:0231Punt0–0
CINQ1 4:43618Punt0–0
CLEQ1 2:07517Punt0–0
CINQ2 14:461337Touchdown0–7
CLEQ2 9:431263Field goal3–7
CINQ2 2:591075Touchdown3–13
CLEQ2 0:24330End of half3–13
CLEQ3 15:0038Punt3–13
CINQ3 13:25735Punt3–13
CLEQ3 10:0234Punt3–13
CINQ3 8:10256Touchdown3–20
CLEQ3 7:261181Touchdown10–20
CINQ3 2:17563Field goal10–23
CLEQ4 14:57418Turnover10–23
CINQ4 13:39530Turnover10–23
CLEQ4 10:431565Turnover on downs10–23
CINQ4 5:25417Punt10–23
CLEQ4 4:2046Turnover on downs10–23
CINQ4 3:43313End of half10–23

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson26/4227611
Jacoby Brissett0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb14342.40
Deshaun Watson6335.50
Kareem Hunt461.50
David Njoku1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donovan Peoples-Jones8121140
David Njoku79591
Amari Cooper27420
David Bell33270
Nick Chubb33200
Harrison Bryant1180
Kareem Hunt2460

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Burrow18/3323921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joe Mixon14966.90
Samaje Perine4225.51
Joe Burrow6101.70
Ja'Marr Chase166.00
Trayveon Williams122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ja'Marr Chase10151191
Trenton Irwin22581
Trent Taylor14340
Joe Mixon22100
Mitchell Wilcox12100
Trayveon Williams1160
Samaje Perine1520
Tyler Boyd0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.3%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.89
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.95
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.54