Closing spread
CIN -4.5
Total
47
Model margin
+6.5est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bengals
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.013EPA / play+0.081
- 44.1%Success rate47.8%
- +0.021EPA / dropback+0.153
- +0.002EPA / rush-0.064
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.4%
- +1.05CPOE+2.74
- 39.0%Third-down rate47.3%
- 56.3%Red-zone TD rate72.1%
- 1.91Points / drive2.27
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CIN are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 26/42 | 276 | 1 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 14 | 34 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Deshaun Watson | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 8 | 12 | 114 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 7 | 9 | 59 | 1 |
| Amari Cooper | 2 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| David Bell | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 18/33 | 239 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Mixon | 14 | 96 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Joe Burrow | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 10 | 15 | 119 | 1 |
| Trenton Irwin | 2 | 2 | 58 | 1 |
| Trent Taylor | 1 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Joe Mixon | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyler Boyd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.3%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.89
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.95
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.54